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Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025

MUMBAI – Ventura Securities expects gold prices to touch $3,600 per ounce this year mainly because of macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical risks, and sustained investment demand. Gold prices in India can rise up to INR 103,000 per 10 grams and "not beyond that" due to volatility in the rupee against the dollar, said N.S Ramaswamy, head of commodities and customer relationship management at Ventura Securities, at a webinar Tuesday. Ramaswamy has advised Indian investors to "buy-on-dip", adding that in the week or 10 days "you can even short gold and make money".

Gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India rose to a record high of INR 102,250 per 10 grams on Aug. 8 and a record high of $3,534.1 on the COMEX on Aug. 7, according to Ventura. At 1443 IST, the most-active October gold contract on the MCX was 0.3% lower at INR 99,105 per 10 grams and the most-active December gold contract on the COMEX was at $3,383.7 per ounce, 0.2% higher than the previous close.

Ventura is expecting gold prices on the domestic exchange to bounce back to INR 100,500 per 10 grams in the short term and investors can book profit at that level. He expects gold prices between INR 98,000 and INR 100,500 per 10 grams in the next one week or 10 days. Ramaswamy said that INR 96,000 per 10 grams can act as a support for gold. However, in the long term, Ramaswamy advised investors to "hold".

When asked about what percentage allocation one should have for gold in their portfolio, Ramaswamy said that there was a time when everyone was having just 2-5% gold in their portfolio but now gold can take up to 15%. "The proof of the pudding is in the eating. The way the returns (on gold) have performed, even beating the risk on sentiment in equity, it (gold) has proven that it is giving returns. Now, asset allocation can go to 15% for sure."

In the last three years, gold has given annual average return of 23% whereas returns in the NIFTY 50 have been 11%, Ramaswamy said. Data from the brokerage showed that returns from MCX gold have outperformed returns from the NIFTY six times in the last ten years. "MCX gold as compared to NIFTY 50 has been outperforming across the board and this is also true when we take any asset class as compared to gold," Ramaswamy added.

On the COMEX, gold prices are stuck in a range of $3,368 per ounce and $3,402 per ounce and key resistance is at $3,440-$3,470 per ounce, he said. Key events that will guide gold prices in the coming months are the ongoing talks between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium later this week.

Ramaswamy expects global central bank to continue adding gold to their reserves this year and inflows into gold exchange-traded funds as well. The assets under management of global gold ETFs increased 64% on year to $383 billion as of Jun. 30 with gold holding rising 16% on year to 3,616 tonnes, according to the brokerage.

In Indian gold ETFs, holding rose 43% on year to 66.68 tonnes while the assets under mangement increased 88% on year to INR 647.77 billion as of Jun. 30. The number of accounts rose 41% on year to 7.6 million in June 2025, data from the brokerage showed. "...this ETF segment as we go forward is going to have more and more participation," Ramaswamy said.  End

US$1 = INR 86.95

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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