Earnings Outlook
Ashok Leyland Q1 PAT seen up YoY in mid-teens on low base
This story was originally published at 21:29 IST on 13 August 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025
By Gopika Balasubramanium
MUMBAI – Commercial vehicles maker Ashok Leyland Ltd.'s top line for the June quarter is expected to see a low-single-digit on-year rise due to overall flat volumes, with sales of its medium and heavy trucks declining and those of light commercial vehicles posting muted growth. The company's bottom line is seen increasing in mid-teens due to a lower base in the year-ago quarter, during which the company incurred higher tax outgo. Demand outlook for medium and heavy commercial vehicles is key factor to monitor, according to analysts.
The company is expected to report a 15% on-year growth in net profit to INR 6.05 billion, as per an average of estimates from 10 brokerages. For the year-ago quarter, the company's net profit had declined nearly 9% on year to INR 5.26 billion due to a staggering INR-1.8-billion tax outgo. However, analysts tracking Ashok Leyland see a 51% sequential fall in bottom line. Among the brokerages, YES Securities (India) Ltd. has the highest net profit projection for the company at INR 6.80 billion, and Kotak Securities has the lowest at INR 5.56 billion.
Meanwhile, the Ecomet-maker's sales are expected to rise 2.1% on year to INR 87.75 billion. Sequentially, the top line is expected to fall over 26%. Among the brokerages, Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. has the highest net profit projection for the company at INR 90.20 billion, and Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. has the lowest at INR 84.50 billion.
The company's total vehicle sales declined by a percentage point on year during Apr-Jun to 41,227 units. Its medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales declined 2% on year while light commercial vehicle sales grew just 1% on year. Exports for the quarter under review increased nearly 29% on year to 3,011 units.
Ashok Leyland is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 9.79 billion, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerages. Yes Securities pegs EBITDA the highest at INR 10.60 billion, and Kotak Securities the lowest at INR 9.36 billion.
Kotak Securities expects the company's EBITDA margin to increase by 20 basis points on year to 10.8%. The on-year improvement in its margins will be driven by favourable net pricing and richer segmental mix, partly offset by higher steel prices and lower mix of non-automobile segment. Motilal Oswal also has similar projections for EBITDA margin at 10.8%. Both brokerages see the metric fall 420 bps on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Meanwhile, Nirmal Bang sees a whopping 140 bps on-year improvement in EBITDA margin for the quarter ended June to 12%. The company will detail its June quarter results on Thursday.
On Wednesday, shares of the company closed at INR 119.73 on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.3%. The stock is largely unchanged from the closing price on May 23, when Ashok Leyland declared its Jan-Mar earnings. Of the 24 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 19 have a "buy" rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 262, three have a "sell" rating on the stock and two have a "hold" rating.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Ashok Leyland in INR million, based on reports from ten broking firms in descending order of estimates of net profit:
| Brokerage | Net Sales | Net Profit | EBITDA |
| YES Securities (India) Ltd | 88477.00 | 6804.00 | 10,597.00 |
| HDFC Securities Ltd | 88,120.00 | 6,428.00 | -- |
| InCred Research Services Pvt Ltd | 88,394.00 | 6,413.00 | 9,900.00 |
| Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd | 90,199.00 | 6,285.00 | -- |
| Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd | 84,495.00 | 5,930.00 | 10,139.00 |
| Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 88,439.00 | 5,827.00 | 9,540.00 |
| Nomura Equity Research | 88,607.00 | 5,814.00 | 9,761.00 |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 87,961.00 | 5,751.00 | 9,500.00 |
| JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 86,443.00 | 5,692.00 | 9,509.00 |
| Kotak Institutional Equities | 86,340.00 | 5,556.00 | 9,358.00 |
| Average | 87,747.50 | 6,050.00 | 9,788.00 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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