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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Vodafone Idea Ltd. is expected to narrow its net loss in the June quarter, supported by higher average revenue per user and an improved subscriber mix. However, a continued decline in its subscriber base, particularly in the second-generation segment, is expected to weigh on its bottom line for the quarter. This will mark the 28th consecutive quarter of the company reporting a net loss. 

 

The company's consolidated net loss is expected to be INR 69.59 billion for the June quarter, according to the average of the estimates from five brokerages. This is lower than the net loss of INR 71.66 billion reported in the previous quarter, but higher than the loss of INR 64.32 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. Estimates for the net loss range from INR 64.25 billion by Kotak Institutional Equities to INR 75.00 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. 

 

Its consolidated revenue for the reporting quarter is expected to be INR 110.94 billion, up marginally from the INR 110.14 billion reported in the March quarter, the average of estimates from five brokerages showed. However, on a year-on-year basis, the company's top line is expected to see a near 6% rise. Centrum Broking Ltd. has the highest estimate of INR 111.44 billion for the company's net sales, while Motilal Oswal has the lowest estimate of INR 110.00 billion. 

 

The company's average revenue per user for the reporting quarter is expected to rise 1-2% sequentially, estimates from four brokerages showed. "ARPU expected to grow by ~2% QoQ led by 2G to 4G migration and higher number of days in the quarter," Centrum Broking said. It also expects Vodafone Idea's data usage per customer to remain robust, led by growing penetration of fourth-generation and fifth-generation networks.

 

Similarly, JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. expects the company's average revenue per user to improve 1.6% on quarter due to improved subscriber mix and an additional day in the June quarter compared to the previous quarter, though it could be partly offset by a net subscriber loss of around 900,000. 

 

Vodafone Idea is expected to have lost around 1.14 million subscribers during Apr-Jun, data compiled from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India showed. During the March quarter, the company had lost over 1.6 million subscribers, taking its total customer base to 198.2 million. 

 

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the quarter is expected to fall slightly on a sequential basis but rise over 10% on a year-on-year basis to INR 46.45 billion, according to an average of estimates from five brokerages. 

 

While Motilal Oswal and Nuvama expect the company's EBITDA margin for the quarter to decline sequentially by 80 basis points and 70 bps respectively, Centrum Broking expects it to improve 8 bps.  

 

The debt-ridden company will announce its June quarter earnings Thursday. Investors will watch out for the company management's commentary on progress in the fifth-generation network rollout, ongoing capital expenditure activity, and fund-raising initiatives. 

 

On Wednesday, shares of the company closed around 2% lower at INR 6.36 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has fallen over 8% since it announced its March quarter earnings. 

 

Of the seven research reports available on the company with Informist, only Nomura Global Markets Research has a 'buy' rating on the stock with a target price of INR 10 per share. Of the remaining six, four have a 'hold' or equivalent rating and two have a 'sell' or equivalent rating on the stock.

 

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Vodafone Idea in INR million, based on reports from five broking firms in descending order of net loss:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net loss	EBITDA
Kotak Institutional Equities	110,770	64,249	45,381
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	111,143	66,953	46,203
Centrum Broking Ltd.	111,438	70,314	47,244
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	111,355	71,450	47,416
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	110,000	75,000	46,000
Average	110,941.20	69,593.20	46,448.80

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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