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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025

By Simran Rede

MUMBAI – India's headline indices are likely to move slightly higher Thursday on the expiry day of the derivatives contract of the Nifty 50 as investors are seen covering their short positions. However, the gains may be capped due to tariff threats and uncertainty over India striking a trade deal with the US, analysts said.  

The Nifty 50 closed at 24619.35, up 131.95 points, or 0.5% and the BSE Sensex ended at 80539.91, up 304.32 points, or 0.4%. The 50-stock index is likely to face resistance at 24700–24800 points. If the index breaches the 24800 mark, then it may rally further to 25200 points, technical analysts said. The support for the index is pegged at 24300–24200 points.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi may visit the US next month to attend the UN General Assembly, raising hopes of bilateral discussions amid rising trade tensions between the two nations, according to media reports. This has added to the optimism. On the diplomatic front, India's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is set to visit Russia on Aug. 21 to meet his counterpart on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting. This is just days after the crucial Russia–US presidential meeting scheduled in Alaska Friday. Any positive development from these meetings is likely to raise hopes for the removal of additional 25% tariffs imposed on India over its purchase of Russian crude oil.

On the international front, China has eased limits on urea shipments to India amid tensions between Beijing and New Delhi as Trump's trade policies target the two Asian nations, Motilal Oswal Wealth Management said. India, the world's leading importer of the crop nutrient, could take as much as 300,000 tonnes. This is likely to be a positive development for fertiliser stocks, the brokerage said.

Moreover, India and China are set to resume direct flights as soon as September as the two countries seek to reset political ties after years of tensions, Hindustan Times reported, citing sources. This announcement comes around the time when Modi is set to visit the country at the end of August.

Back home, while the headline CPI inflation fell to an eight-year low, the persistence of high core inflation and signs of a reversal in food deflation suggest that inflation may have bottomed out, Motilal Oswal said in the report. Amid further downside risks to the economy from global trade tensions and rising tariffs, any upturn in inflation could hurt the recent recovery in real incomes, which was supported by disinflation in recent months, the brokerage said. Hence, the room for the RBI to cut interest rates by a wide margin is limited, it said. 

All Nifty 50 constituents have declared their earnings and the earnings season is nearing its conclusion.  End

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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