More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The US Energy Information Administration has significantly reduced its forecast for Brent crude oil prices to average $58 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, from its previous projection of $64 per barrel. The agency has also revised downward its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2026 to $51 per barrel from $58 per barrel forecast earlier. It now expects Brent crude oil prices to average $67 per barrel in 2025, the agency said in its short-term energy outlook for August.

 

The downward revision in prices is mainly because the agency expects large build-ups in global oil inventories, after members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accelerated the pace of production hikes in the last few months. As for West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the US energy agency has lowered its estimate for 2025 to $63.58 per barrel from $65.22 per barrel in its previous forecast. In 2026, the agency expects WTI prices to average $47.77 per barrel compared with previous estimate of $54.82 per barrel.

 

EIA expects global oil inventory builds will now average more than 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, which is 800,000 barrels per day higher than its previous forecast. "Low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ (OPEC and allies) and some non-OPEC producers, which we expect will help moderate inventory builds later in 2026," the agency said.

 

The agency added that oil prices dropping below $50 per barrel will cause some producers to reduce supply, particularly OPEC and its allies, who are expected to reduce crude oil production by 200,000 barrels per day in 2026 compared with the fourth quarter of 2025. Some nations, such as the US, which are not part of OPEC and rely on supply from short-investment cycles will also see a drop in oil production. According to the agency, annual average crude oil production of the US in 2026 is expected to decrease 100,000 barrels per day on average from the record in 2025.

 

Increases in well productivity in the US will push the country's crude oil production to an all-time high of around 13.6 million barrels per day in December. However, as crude oil prices fall, US producers will accelerate the decreases in drilling and well completion activity that have been going on through most of this year, and US crude oil production will fall to 13.1 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of 2026. It expects US crude oil production to average 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.3 million barrels per day in 2026.

 

Global oil inventories rose at a rate of 1.4 million barrels per day in the first half of this year, the agency said, adding that it now expects inventories to build by 1.9 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025 and by 2.3 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year. "During similar periods, when global inventory builds exceeded 1 million barrels per day for a sustained time period - including 2020, 2015, and 1998 - crude oil prices declined by 25%–50% from the previous year," EIA said.

 

The agency expects falling oil prices to cause a small increase in demand next year. It also expects global oil demand in the second half of 2025 to rise 1.6 million barrels per day from the first half of the year. Global consumption of liquid fuels is seen at 103.72 million barrels per day in 2025, higher than the agency's earlier forecast of 103.54 million barrels per day. In 2026, it sees consumption of liquid fuels at 104.91 million barrels per day, which is 320,000 barrels per day higher than its previous forecast.

EIA expects global liquid fuels production in 2025 at 105.36 million barrels per day, higher than its previous projection of 104.61 million barrels per day. In 2026, it sees global liquid fuels production at 106.35 million barrels per day, also higher from its previous forecast of 105.72 million barrels per day. At 1529 IST, the price of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was $65.87 per barrel and the price of WTI crude on NYMEX was $62.85 per barrel.  End

 

US$1 = INR 87.47

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Nishant Maher

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.