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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025

By Simran Rede

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are likely to be rangebound Wednesday due to lack of triggers. The US trade tariffs on India for buying Russian crude oil continue to raise uncertainty among investors. India will also keep a close watch on the meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, which is scheduled in Alaska on Friday. Additionally, a truncated week due to Independence Day has muted investor sentiment. 

The deadline for imposing the additional 25% tariff on Indian goods imported into the US is Aug. 27. This will be a key factor to monitor along with how respective countries are trying to tackle that through various steps and measures, Sunny Agrawal, head of fundamental equity research at SBICAPS Securities, said. On the other hand, analysts do not expect much impact of tariffs on India dur to the uncertainty of its imposition. They believe that Trump will not charge these high duties because this is practically not possible, and if forcefully imposed, then ultimately, it will hurt the US economy.

"There are no major triggers for the market to react sharply so it will be down to flat today (Wednesday)," Anshul Jain, head of research at Lakshmishree Investments, said. The Nifty 50 is likely to open 40–50 points higher but will be flat throughout the session with a negative bias, he said. However, there are slight chances of some short covering in the second half of the session, he added.

The benchmark indices closed lower Tuesday, after a choppy session. The Nifty 50 ended 0.4% lower at 24487.40 points and the BSE Sensex closed 0.5% lower at 80235.59 points. The support for the Nifty 50 is seen at 24400–24350 points for the near term and resistance at 24750–24800 points. At 0829 IST, the GIFT Nifty August contract traded on the NSE International Exchange was up 0.1% at 24649.50, which was over 162 points higher than the Nifty 50's Tuesday closing level.

A slight positivity in the initial hour of trade is likely after India's headline CPI inflation slipped to an eight-year low of 1.55% in July, mainly because of a statistical effect of a high base. The CPI is lower than the 1.3% pegged by an Informist poll. This is the third time in the current series when CPI inflation has been below 2%. Investors are likely to focus more on taking stock-specific actions as uncertainty has dented sentiment. Moreover, weak June quarter corporate earnings have pulled down the optimism in the market, according to analysts.  

After a pause from selling on Friday, foreign investors continued offloading their investments in Indian equities. FIIs sold equities worth INR 33.99 billion on Tuesday. Foreign investors have been increasing their short positions in index futures and have more than 90% short positions in index futures, hinting at high caution towards the Indian stock market. On the other hand, domestic investors continued to support the market for 26 consecutive sessions and bought INR 35.08 billion of equities on Tuesday. 

Global crude oil prices have been stable at around $66 per barrel for the last five days, which has also been providing some comfort to investors. Brent crude prices eased to less than $70 per barrel in August amid optimism about US-Russia talks and also on hopes that India will likely sign a favourable deal with the US in the coming months. The upcoming meeting of Trump and Putin on Friday may also have some impact on crude oil prices. At 0830 IST, the October futures contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $66.02 per barrel, down 0.2%.

In the US, the benchmark equity indices closed sharply higher Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 closing at record highs, as a better-than-expected inflation print for July boosted sentiment. The US CPI increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July. Most Asian indices were higher in early trade, tracking the strong gains in the US market overnight with Japan's indices again hitting record high levels.  End

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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