Informist Poll
WPI inflation seen falling further to -0.5% in July
This story was originally published at 19:00 IST on 12 August 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025
By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – Wholesale prices in India likely declined on a year-on-year basis for the second consecutive month in July because of a high base effect and lower food prices, according to 10 economists polled by Informist, who see WPI inflation for last month at (-)0.5%.
WPI inflation was (-)0.13% in June and 2.10% in July last year. Economists' estimates for July WPI inflation ranged from (-)0.6% to 0%. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for July at 1200 IST on Thursday.
The base effect in July is such that if the all commodities index remains unchanged from June, wholesale inflation would fall to (-)1.0% in July. A WPI inflation rate of (-)0.5% in July would translate to a 0.5% month-on-month rise in the all commodities index from June, which would be the highest sequential rise in nine months.
The sequential rise in the all commodities index is likely to be driven by a month-on-month rise in wholesale food prices, particularly vegetables, economists said. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of tomato rose 38% on month in July and onion prices were up 6% from June.
Overall, however, wholesale food prices were likely lower compared to a year ago. "This (fall in WPI inflation) is primarily led by both food inflation and fuel sub-segments that likely dived further into deflation territory even as core WPI picked up during the month," Union Bank of India said in a report. Economists at Union Bank of India project WPI food inflation to fall to (-)1.72% from (-)0.26% in June.
Core WPI inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items--likely rose in July because of higher metal prices, economists said. Core WPI inflation is seen rising to around 1.4% in July from 1.0% in June.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in July:
| ORGANISATION | WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
| India Ratings and Research | (-)0.6% |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | (-)0.6% |
| Sunidhi Securities | (-)0.48% |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | (-)0.46% |
| Union Bank of India | (-)0.45% |
| YES Bank | (-)0.35% |
| ICICI Bank | (-)0.32% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | (-)0.3% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | (-)0.26% |
| CareEdge Ratings | 0% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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