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Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025

MUMBAI – Though the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently 'neutral', the index is increasingly likely to turn 'negative' during spring, in line with the predictions of other international weather models, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report. Spring in Australia spans from September to November. 

The index has been in negative territory for the past three weeks, the bureau said. The values are expected to return to neutral in early summer, which is consistent with the typical Indian Ocean Dipole life cycle. Summer in Australia is from December to February.

For the week ended Sunday, the Indian Ocean Dipole value was (-)0.84 degrees Celsius. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a positive index, and values below (−)0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a negative index.  

There is no possibility of either La Nina or El Nino till at least January, as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation continues to be in the 'neutral' category, the weather bureau said. This is consistent with forecasts of six of the eight international models it reviewed. The remaining two models indicate "borderline La Nina" levels during spring and early summer. However, there is a relatively large spread in the model forecasts, indicating greater uncertainty than usual in the forecast outcomes, the bureau said. 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier, hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation stood at (-)0.12 degrees Celsius as of Sunday, suggesting neutral conditions. For La Nina to emerge, ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius. For El Nino, the temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

The intensity of rainfall is likely to decrease across India in August but is expected to pick up pace again in September, the India Meteorological Department said in its monthly weather outlook on Jul. 31. Rainfall over the country is likely to be within the normal range of 94-106% of the long-period average in August. The department forecast normal rainfall over the country in August and above-normal rainfall in September.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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