Earnings Outlook
IRB Infra Q1 PAT likely to rise 30% YoY, sales seen up 7%
This story was originally published at 11:11 IST on 12 August 2025
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By Akash Mandal
MUMBAI – IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. is likely to post a double-digit on-year growth in its bottom line for the June quarter, with Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. factoring in higher margins. Other brokerages, however, have a more conservative outlook on the earnings. Its top line is projected to rise in high single digits on year, driven by increased toll collections and realisations from government-awarded build-operate-transfer projects during the quarter.
The Mumbai-based infrastructure company's consolidated net profit is seen rising over 30% on year to INR 1.83 billion for the June quarter, according to the average of estimates of five brokerages. However, the consolidated net profit is seen falling 15% sequentially from INR 2.15 billion. The highest estimate is INR 2.34 billion by Anand Rathi while the lowest is INR 1.10 billion by HDFC Securities Ltd.
The company's consolidated revenue is seen rising over 7% on year but falling 7% sequentially to INR 19.89 billion for the reporting quarter. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the highest revenue estimate of INR 21.06 billion while HDFC Securities has the lowest of INR 17.50 billion.
"IRB is likely to report 14% YoY growth in sales due to higher BoT (build-operate-transfer) revenue (+13% YoY) and a marginal improvement in construction (+4% YoY)," Motilal Oswal said in its earnings preview report. Kotak Institutional Equities Ltd. also expects the build-operate-transfer segment to see strong growth. "Roads sector saw a few BoT projects being awarded in 1QFY26...for IRB, we expect revenue to be up 1% YoY, as steady toll revenue is aided by InvITs (Infrastructure Investment Trust) income," the brokerage said.
IRB Infrastructure Trust Ltd., the company's affiliate, had reported a consolidated net loss of INR 427.64 million for the June quarter, lower than the INR 1.15 billion loss it reported in the year ago quarter. However, the affiliate had reported a consolidated net profit of INR 290.18 million in the trailing quarter. Its consolidated revenue rose over 46% on year but fell 6% sequentially to INR 17.95 billion. The company had detailed its earnings on Jul. 25.
IRB Infrastructure Developers, the sponsor company holding 51% stake in the Trust, will announce its June quarter results Thursday. The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is likely to fall nearly 10% on year and 17% sequentially to INR 8.81 billion in the June quarter, according to the average of estimates from four brokerages. The decline is due to high operating expenses, Motilal Oswal said. Kotak Institutional Equities has the highest EBITDA estimate of INR 9.73 billion while HDFC Securities has the lowest of INR 6.60 billion.
In terms of EBITDA margin, Anand Rathi is the outlier, and expects the company's margin to expand to 51.7% in the June quarter from 46.3% in the year ago quarter and 46.4% in the trailing quarter. Kotak Institutional Equities sees the EBITDA margin largely flat on year at 46.5% while Motilal Oswal expects it to fall 130 basis points to 45%. "We model EBITDA margin of 24.5% in construction segment and 88% in BOT segment, with overall EBITDA margins of 46.5% (flat on a yoy basis)," Kotak Institutional Equities said in its report.
Kotak Equities noted that order wins in the build-operate-transfer and toll-operate-transfer segments remain a key focus for the company while Motilal Oswal highlighted that securing orders in the construction segment is a primary focus. At 1041 IST, shares of the company were 0.2% higher at INR 44.35 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has fallen over 12% since the company released its March quarter earnings on May 19.
Of the four brokerage reports available on the company with Informist, two have an "add" rating on the stock. Motilal Oswal has a "neutral" rating and Incred Research Services Pvt. Ltd. has a "reduce" rating.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for IRB Infrastructure Developers based on reports from five brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit:
Brokerage | Net sales (in INR mln) | Net profit (in INR mln) | EBITDA (in INR mln) |
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. | 19,019.00 | 2,335.00 | - |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 20,926.00 | 2,102.00 | 9,731.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. | 21,059.00 | 1,847.00 | 9,477.00 |
Antique Stock Broking Ltd. | 20,946.00 | 1,743.00 | 9,426.00 |
HDFC Securities Ltd. | 17,500.00 | 1,100.00 | 6,600.00 |
Average | 19,890.00 | 1,825.40 | 8,808.50 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Subhojit Sarkar
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