Earnings Outlook
NMDC Apr-Jun PAT seen falling 7% YoY on high base
This story was originally published at 13:07 IST on 9 August 2025
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By Narayana Krishna
HYDERABAD - NMDC Ltd. is expected to report a fall on a year-on-year basis in its net profit during the June quarter due to high base and high royalty and employee expenses, analysts said. The company is likely to see a higher double-digit growth sequentially led by an improvement in iron ore price realisation, according to analysts.
The public sector iron ore major is projected to report around 7?ll in its net profit at INR 18.5 billion for the June quarter, while its revenue is expected to grow over 22% on year to INR 65.9 billion, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerages. From the trailing quarter, NMDC's net profit is seen rising nearly 24% but revenue is seen falling over 5%, the estimates show. Another reason for sequential rise in net profit is the company profit base was lower in the March quarter.
Analysts' projections for NMDC's June quarter net profit range from a high of INR 20.4 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. to a low of INR 17.3 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Revenue projections range from INR 60.6 billion by Antique Stock Broking Ltd. to INR 72.2 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. NMDC is scheduled to announce its Apr-Jun earnings on Tuesday.
NMDC sold 11.51 million tonnes of iron ore in the June quarter, an increase of 14% on year but lower by 9% quarter-on-quarter. The company increased its iron ore prices in May by INR 440 per tonne and took a price cut in June by INR 150 per tonne. The effective price hike for the quarter was INR 290 per tonne, helping the company improve per tonne realisations for the June quarter, analysts said.
Nuvama Wealth expects NMDC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation per tonne are likely to decline 8% on year to INR 2,155. The average realisation for the quarter is seen at INR 5,183 per tonne, up 2%, the brokerage said.
Kotak Institutional Equities estimate EBITDA per tonne--a key metric for iron mining companies--to see a fall of 17% on year but rise 18% on quarter on the back of higher realisations. Kotak expects blended realisation, which includes sales of lumps and fines to rise 3.7% on quarter led by price hikes. The average of estimates of eight brokerages for NMDC June quarter EBITDA is pegged at INR 23.2 billion.
Analysts will looking for the company's commentary on iron ore price trends in the coming quarters and scope for the volume growth. The status of mine expansion plans is another area of interest for the market participants.
On Friday, shares of NMDC ended at INR 71.07 on the National Stock Exchange, down 0.6%. The stock has fallen 2.3% since the company announced its March quarter earnings.
Of the 11 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, eight have a ‘buy' rating with an average target price of INR 85, while one brokerage has a ‘hold' rating with a target price of INR 78.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for NMDC Ltd. based on reports from eight brokerage firms in the descending order by the estimate of net profit:
|
Brokerage name |
Net Sales |
Net Profit |
EBITDA |
|
|
--in million rupees-- |
||
|
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd |
65,354.00 |
20,420.00 |
24,895.00 |
|
YES Securities (India) Ltd |
68,017.00 |
19,446.00 |
24,307.00 |
|
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd |
66,829.00 |
19,166.00 |
24,590.00 |
|
Kotak Institutional Equities |
65,741.00 |
18,408.00 |
22,614.00 |
|
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd |
72,200.00 |
18,400.00 |
23,900.00 |
|
Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd |
60,779.00 |
17,402.00 |
21,626.00 |
|
Antique Stock Broking Ltd |
60,577.00 |
17,308.00 |
21,598.00 |
|
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd |
67,300.00 |
17,300.00 |
21,800.00 |
|
Average |
65,849.63 |
18,481.25 |
23,166.25 |
End
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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