Earnings Outlook
Oil India Q1 PAT seen dn on lower crude prices, flat output
This story was originally published at 11:28 IST on 8 August 2025
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By Afra Abubacker
MUMBAI – State-owned Oil India Ltd. is expected to post weak earnings for the June quarter as lower crude oil prices and flat oil output are likely to more than offset modest gains from higher gas production, according to analysts.
The upstream producer's net profit for the June quarter is expected to decline over 13% on year and 20% from the March quarter to INR 12.71 billion, according to the average of estimates by eight brokerages. JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd. has the lowest net profit estimate of INR 10.24 billion and Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd. has the highest at INR 15.60 billion
"We expect a decline in net crude realizations for the company due to a significant correction in crude prices while gas remains stable," Yes Securities (India) said. Oil India may deliver flat on-year growth in oil output, but gas output may rise 1.9% on year, it added.
The company's revenue is seen falling 2.4% on year and 6.0% on quarter to INR 52.03 billion as lower crude prices more than offset modest growth in gas production. Brent crude averaged $68 per barrel in the June quarter, down from $75.7 per barrel in the previous quarter, leading to an estimated 9–10% decline in Oil India's crude realisation, analysts said.
Oil India is expected to post earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 21.73 billion for the June quarter, according to the average of estimates. The EBITDA estimates ranged from a low of INR 17.94 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities to a high of INR 24.40 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher. Despite weaker crude realisations, Oil India's EBITDA is expected to rise from the March quarter due to lower statutory levies and a decline in operating costs, Emkay Global Financial Services said.
Of the 11 research reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 537. One brokerage has a 'hold' rating on the stock and one has a 'sell' rating.
Oil India will announce its Apr–Jun earnings on Tuesday. Analysts will watch out for management commentary on the outlook for crude prices, trends in gas pricing, and any update on exploration activity. AT 1056 IST, shares of Oil India were 0.4% higher at INR 434.2 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has gained 2% since the company reported its March quarter results.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Oil India in INR million based on reports from eight brokerages in descending order of net profit:
Brokerage | Net sales | Net profit | EBITDA |
(In INR million) | |||
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. | 56,300.00 | 15,600.00 | 24,400.00 |
YES Securities (India) Ltd. | 53,478.00 | 14,030.00 | 23,857.00 |
ICICI Securities Ltd. | 51,500.00 | 13,400.00 | 22,100.00 |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 50,401.00 | 12,634.00 | 22,084.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. | 49,200.00 | 12,300.00 | 21,700.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 49,200.00 | 12,300.00 | 21,700.00 |
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | 53,127.00 | 12,283.00 | 21,478.00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 50,150.00 | 10,237.00 | 17,936.00 |
Average | 52,027.75 | 12,710.38 | 21,727.63 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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