India Stocks Outlook
Seen up Fri; analysts see no major impact of US tariffs
This story was originally published at 18:43 IST on 7 August 2025
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By Simran Rede
MUMBAI – Domestic equity indices are likely to move higher Friday as analysts believe the market has likely factored in all the negatives from the recent global developments and may have bottomed out. Foreign investors have oversold and made extreme short positions in the index futures, hence a short-covering is likely to be seen moving ahead, analysts said. They do not expect a major fall in the market due to US tariffs.
On Thursday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24596.15 points, up 21.95 points or 0.1% and the BSE Sensex ended at 80623.26 points, up 79.27 points or 0.1%. The 50-stock index is expected to face resistance at 24700 points, while the support is seen at 24400 points, technical analysts said.
"So far, market seems to be complacent thinking that India-US trade deal may eventually be negotiated to a lower level. However, back-door government-to-government interactions, especially amongst BRIC nations, suggests no immediate resolution," Utsav Verma, head of research of institutional equities at Choice Broking, said in a note. He sees mutual mistrust, imports of Russian crude oil, access to dairy, the agriculture segment, the unpredictable negotiation environment, and geopolitical divergence as near-term headwinds for India.
If the US tariffs fall in place without any further extensions, it will likely have a cumulative impact of 0.5–0.7% on India's GDP, analysts said. Gems and jewellery, textiles, and mobile phones are likely to have the sharpest effects of these tariffs, Trideep Bhattacharya, president and chief information officer of equities at Edelweiss Mutual Fund, said in a note.
A brief 1-2% drop in buyers of textiles and garments, gems and jewellery, and automobiles is expected due to the imposition of 25% additional tariffs. India ships a total of $40 billion of these components altogether to the US, which is half of the $79-billion export basket of India.
India will have to face this 0.5–0.7% impact to safeguard its domestic agricultural economy, as part of "welfare motive", Bhattacharya noted. Higher inflation, tighter producer margins, and a drag on global trade could weigh on valuation multiples globally over time, he said.
Nifty Realty closed 0.1% lower a day after the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50%. While demand for home loans was slightly subdued in the June quarter, buyer sentiment, especially in the ensuing festive season in the affordable and mid-income segments will be positive, Tribhuwan Adhikari, managing director and chief executive officer of LIC Housing Finance, said in a note.
Nifty Bank is expected to rise further to 56000 points Friday, said Anshul Jain, head of technical research at Laxmishree Investments and Securities. The Nifty Bank closed at 55521.15 points, up 0.2%.
Nifty Pharma closed 0.8% higher and was among the top-gaining sectoral indices after being the worst hit on Wednesday. Trump threatened to impose 250% tariffs on pharma products and was supposed to make a final decision within 24 hours Thursday. However, he did not clarify any further developments regarding this.
On the earnings front, Grasim Industries is seen trading in negative territory ahead of its June quarter results. The stock closed at INR 2,743.70, down 0.8%. State Bank of India and Tata Motors are seen in a range of INR 812-INR 850 and INR 600-INR 670, respectively. Shares of SBI closed flat at INR 805.15 and those of Tata Motors closed 1% lower at INR 646.50. End
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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