Earnings Outlook
Cummins India Q1 revenue, PAT seen up on higher exports
This story was originally published at 19:28 IST on 6 August 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025
By Shakshi Jain
NEW DELHI – Cummins India Ltd. is expected to post a moderate year-on-year growth in its top line and bottom line for the June quarter, driven by a strong double-digit rise in export sales and a slower single-digit growth in revenue from power generation business.
The diesel and natural gas engine and generator set manufacturer is expected to post a net profit growth of 11% on year to INR 4.68 billion for the June quarter, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. However, sequentially, this would mean a decline of more than 10%. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 5.25 billion from Sharekhan Ltd. while the lowest is INR 4.34 billion from Antique Stock Broking Ltd.
The company's revenue in the reporting quarter likely rose almost 12% on year and 5% sequentially to INR 25.79 billion. The highest estimate for revenue is INR 26.62 billion by IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd. and the lowest is INR 24.78 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.
According to several brokerages, Cummins India's power generation business may reflect a marginal year-on-year decline in volume for the June quarter. However, it is expected have benefitted from higher prices of generator sets compliant with IV+ norms of the Central Pollution Control Board. The company switched over to CPCB IV+ emission norms-compliant products from Jul. 1 last year.
On other hand, the company's exports are estimated to have grown 29% to 30% on year in the June quarter, given a low base in the year-ago quarter. Cummins India's exports had fallen 22% on year to INR 3.89 billion in the June quarter of the previous financial year.
In the March quarter, the company's bottom line had fallen 7.2% on year to INR 5.21 billion. Meanwhile, its revenue had risen 6.4% on year to INR 24.14 billion. Sequentially, the company's bottom line had risen 1.43% while its top line had fallen nearly 21% in Jan-Mar.
Cummins India is expected to post earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 5.12 billion for the June quarter, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The estimates range between a low of INR 4.62 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities and a high of INR 5.34 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Kotak Institutional Equities expects the company's EBITDA margin to decline 70 basis points on year due to increased competition and weak growth in the power generation segment. Meanwhile, Motilal Oswal Financial Services estimates a 20 basis-point contraction and Prabhudas Lilladher Equities forecast a 90 basis-point fall in the margin.
"We expect margins to come in at 20% and EBITDA growth of 11% on a YoY (year-on-year) basis," IDBI Capital said in a report. Nomura said it expects the company's margins to sustain above 20% on the back of 18% year-on-year fall in pig iron prices and cost-reduction measures undertaken by the company.
Cummins India will announce its June quarter earnings Thursday. Investors will keenly watch the company management's commentary on pick-up in demand for generator sets, its outlook on exports, pricing in the power generator business, and performance and outlook for the nascent battery energy storage system business. "Demand outlook on various facets of infrastructure segments would also be of prime importance," IDBI Capital said in a report.
On Wednesday, shares of Cummins India ended at INR 3,635.70 on the National Stock Exchange, up 1.2%. The stock has risen over 22% since the company reported its earnings for the March quarter. It is down 7.5% from its 52-week high of INR 3,929, reached on Aug. 26 last year.
Of the 11 research reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' rating on the stock and two have a 'hold' recommendation. The average price target of the buy recommendations is INR 3,978.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Cummins India based on reports from 11 brokerages in the descending order by the estimate of net profit (in INR million):
Brokerage firm | Net sales | Net profit | EBITDA |
Sharekhan Ltd | 26,270.00 | 5,250.00 | |
IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd | 26,617.00 | 4,918.00 | 5,240.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 26,579.00 | 4,911.00 | 5,342.00 |
Nomura Equity Research | 26,125.00 | 4,706.00 | 5,319.00 |
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 26,268.00 | 4,694.00 | 5,254.00 |
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd | 25,101.00 | 4,657.00 | 5,276.00 |
HDFC Securities Ltd | 25,700.00 | 4,600.00 | 5,300.00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 24,776.00 | 4,531.00 | 4,622.00 |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 25,396.00 | 4,491.00 | 4,965.00 |
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd | 25,352.00 | 4,410.00 | 4,918.00 |
Antique Stock Broking Ltd | 25,526.00 | 4,340.00 | 4,978.00 |
Average | 25,791.82 | 4,682.55 | 5,121.40 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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