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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025

By Anshul Choudhary

MUMBAI – BSE Ltd.'s consolidated net profit for the June quarter is expected to decline slightly on a sequential basis due to a high base of the March quarter. The exchange had reported a one-time income of INR 1.10 billion on reversing the provision made towards the core settlement guarantee fund. The exchange is likely to report an outgo towards the fund in the June quarter, which will hit profit despite higher revenue, estimates by brokerages showed.

BSE's consolidated net profit for Apr-Jun is expected to fall 5% on quarter to INR 4.70 billion, according to an average of estimates by four brokerages. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expects the company to report an expense of INR 300 million towards the settlement guarantee fund in the reporting quarter. BSE is scheduled to report its earnings Thursday.

While the sequential performance is expected to be weak, estimates show that net profit will likely jump 77% on year--driven by market share gains in the derivatives segment over the past several quarters. The highest estimate for net profit is from HDFC Securities and Motilal Oswal at INR 4.77 billion and the lowest estimate is from Mirae Asset Sharekhan Financial Services Ltd. at INR 4.50 billion.

BSE's consolidated revenue is expected to rise over 12% on quarter in Apr-Jun to INR 9.52 billion, according to estimates by four brokerages. This will be the company's slowest revenue growth in seven quarters. Compared to the previous year's June quarter, this would mean a rise of nearly 57%. The highest estimate for revenue is from HDFC Securities at INR 9.84 billion and the lowest estimate is from Mirae Asset Sharekhan at INR 8.80 billion, which means all the four brokerages expect a rise in revenue.

According to BSE's website, its turnover from the cash market in Apr-Jun rose nearly 30% on quarter to INR 4.38 trillion, after declining in the previous two quarters. This is likely to help the company report higher income from transaction charges, boosting revenue, brokerages said. However, its cash market turnover was down over 20% on a year-on-year basis.

BSE will likely continue growing its average daily premium turnover in the derivatives segment. The exchange's average daily premium turnover at its peak in the June quarter was INR 158.90 billion, up nearly 28% from the peak in the March quarter. The average daily premium turnover has nearly doubled in a year, which likely helped the company report a sharp year-on-year growth in revenue despite lower turnover from the cash market.

While the June quarter was strong in terms of performance from its derivative products, any commentary on its performance in July is likely to be in focus as average daily premium turnover fell last month to nearly INR 125 billion. Premium turnover fell sharply after the Securities and Exchange Board of India, on Jul. 4, barred Jane Street--a big player in the derivatives market--from the Indian securities market after allegations of index manipulation. While the ban on Jane Street has since been lifted, analysts are waiting for BSE's comments on its impact on the business.

Analysts will also wait for management commentary on the impact of change in expiry day to Thursday from Tuesday. There are concerns that change in the expiry day is likely to hurt BSE's market share and will lower its income from transaction charges.

Concerns around BSE's market share, possibility of business being hit after the ban on Jane Street, and high valuations have pushed investors to sell the stock in the past two months. Shares of BSE have fallen nearly 22% from its lifetime high of INR 3,030 touched on Jun. 10. On Wednesday, shares of the exchange closed at INR 2,387.60 on the National Stock Exchange, up nearly 1% from the previous close.

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for BSE, in INR billion, based on reports from four brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit:

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Edited by Nishant Maher

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