Earnings Outlook
NALCO Q1 PAT seen up on higher alumina, aluminium volumes
This story was originally published at 12:26 IST on 6 August 2025
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By Shreya Shetty
MUMBAI – National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is likely to report a robust performance in the June quarter, on a yearly basis, due to a rise in alumina and metal volumes, according to analysts. However, the company is expected to clock a weaker growth from the trailing quarter due to a fall in prices of alumina and aluminium.
The company is likely to report a standalone net profit of INR 11.09 billion for the June quarter, up more than 84% on year, according to the average of estimates by five brokerage firms. The highest estimate for net profit was INR 13.90 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd. and the lowest was INR 7.26 billion by Antique Stock Broking Ltd.
The company's revenue is expected to rise over 33% on year to INR 38.12 billion for the reporting quarter, according to the average of the estimates. Forecasts for revenue range from INR 43.18 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. to INR 33.97 billion by Antique Stock Broking.
NALCO's revenue is expected to fall nearly 28% from the trailing quarter while its standalone net profit is likely to decline almost 47%.
The company's on-quarter performance is seen slipping due to a fall in prices of alumina, a major raw material for the production of aluminium. Softening aluminium prices is also seen affecting the company's June quarter performance, analysts said. NALCO is a key producer of alumina and aluminium, selling them both domestically and internationally.
NALCO's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are likely to rise over 40% on year to INR 15.67 billion for the June quarter, as per the average of estimates of the five brokerages. However, its EBITDA is seen down over 43% from the trailing quarter mainly due to a fall in alumina and base metal prices, according to analysts.
Prabhudas Lilladher expects the company's alumina volumes to triple to 319,000 tonnes from the previous year and metal volumes to grow 9% on year to 117,000 tonnes. Kotak Institutional Equities pegs the company's alumina sales rising 201% on year at 300,000 tonnes and aluminium sales rising 7.8% on year at 115,000 tonnes.
Along with higher volumes of alumina and metals, the company's on-year performance is seen improving due to the benefits of backward integration, Sytematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. said. As part of the backward integration, the company established a caustic soda plant in joint venture with Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. in Gujarat in 2015, where production began in 2022. Caustic soda is used in the manufacturing of alumina. NALCO's performance is also likely to improve from the previous year due to a weaker rupee, Antique said.
Market participants should await the management's guidance on domestic demand and its capital expenditure outlook, Motilal Oswal said.
The company will announce its June quarter earnings Thursday. At 1115 IST on Wednesday, shares of NALCO were 0.3% higher at INR 187.89 on the National Stock Exchange. Of all the nine brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, three have a 'buy' or equivalent rating, five have a 'hold' rating with an average target price of INR 187, and Motilal Oswal has a 'neutral' rating.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for National Aluminium Co. Ltd. based on reports from five brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit:
Brokerage firm | Net sales (in INR mln) | Net profit (in INR mln) | EBITDA (in INR mln) |
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd | 39,600.00 | 13,900.00 | 18,800.00 |
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd | 37,700.00 | 12,300.00 | 15,700.00 |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 36,132.00 | 11,052.00 | 15,718.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 43,175.00 | 10,923.00 | 16,807.00 |
Antique Stock Broking Ltd | 33,968.00 | 7,261.00 | 11,312.00 |
Average | 38,115.00 | 11,087.20 | 15,667.40 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Subhojit Sarkar
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