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SBICAPS head of equity research Sunny Agrawal on RBI Policy
This story was originally published at 11:52 IST on 6 August 2025
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MUMBAI - Sunny Agrawal, head of fundamental equity research, SBICAPS Securities, said the following on the Reserve Bank of India's third bi-monthly monetary policy for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) detailed on Wednesday:
"Market is unlikely to react much as the outcome was in line with expectation...it might move sideways in the near term. The only thing which has slightly taken negatively by the street is the inflation forecast for first quarter of 2027. RBI's FY27 inflation (of 4.9%) is on higher end of the band. If you look at a tolerant band of RBI, that is always been 4-6%.
Now people are doubtful that whether there will be any further rate cut or not. But again, I think situation is very fluid looking at a global uncertain business environment. Maybe in October, and during October policy, we will get more clarity. At that time, maybe that again, my personal assessment, all this uncertainty pertaining to US trade deals will be out of the way. And that can have a significant impact on your export number, your current account number. In terms of growth, I think no negative surprises.
There was a hope of one rate cut in FY26, but looking at a forecast of Q1FY27, most of the analysts which I am talking to, they are of a view of no rate cuts in the year. But again, I am hopeful because the situation is very, very fluid. Nobody knows what will happen 3-4 months down the line because of the ongoing trade uncertainty." End
Compiled by Akash Mandal
Filed by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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