Earnings Outlook
Bharat Forge PAT seen up on demand from defence, aerospace
This story was originally published at 16:38 IST on 5 August 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2025
By Reshma Ravi
MUMBAI – Bharat Forge Ltd.'s net profit for the June quarter is expected to rise substantially on year, and the net sales are seen rising marginally on year, due to increased demand from the defence and aerospace segments, particularly for products such as the advanced towed artillery gun system after the recent conflict between India and Pakistan.
However, the impact of a high base in the defence segment's revenue last year may slow down the company's on-year revenue growth despite a sequential pickup in defence orders, according to brokerages tracking the company.
The company is expected to report a net profit of INR 3.61 billion for the June quarter, up 34% on year and up 4.5% on quarter, according to an average of estimates from eight brokerage firms. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 3.96 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 3.20 billion from Kotak Institutional Equities.
The company is expected to report net sales of INR 24.12 billion, up 3% on year and up 11.6% on quarter. The highest estimate for net sales is INR 39.15 billion from Kotak Institutional Equities and the lowest estimate is INR 20.75 billion from Nomura Equity Research.
Analysts expect exports revenue to decline due to weak demand in the passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle businesses. The commercial vehicle segment also faced cost pressure due to the implementation of new norms requiring mandatory air-conditioning in the driver's cabin in commercial vehicles.
"We expect standalone revenues to decline by 6% on year, led by a 6% decline in domestic segment revenues, driven by a decline in the non-auto business, defence segment due to high base, and a 5% decline in export segment revenues driven by weakness in the commercial vehicle and passenger vehicles businesses. We expect defence segment revenues to increase by 25% on quarter," Kotak Institutional Equities said.
The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA for the June quarter is seen at INR 6.26 billion, according to an average of estimates from seven brokerages. The highest estimate for EBITDA is INR 6.87 billion from Kotak and the lowest is INR 5.83 billion from Nomura.
Kotak expects Bharat Forge's consolidated EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 40 basis points year-on-year in the June quarter. YES Securities expects a 20 bps on-year expansion in standalone EBITDA margin to 28.3% due to a favourable product mix and lower raw material costs.
On Tuesday, shares of Bharat Forge ended at INR 1,160.50 on the National Stock Exchange, down 1.4% ahead of the earnings on Wednesday. The stock is up nearly 4% since the company reported its March quarter earnings.
Of the 16 brokerage reports available on the company with Informist, nine have a 'buy' recommendation with an average target price of INR 1,335. Four brokerages have a 'hold' rating and three have a 'sell' recommendation.
Following are the June quarter earnings estimates of Bharat Forge, in INR million, based on reports from six brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit:
Brokerage | Net sales (in INR million) | Net profit (in INR million) | EBITDA (in INR million) |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd |
22,632.00 | 3,961.00 | 6,360.00 |
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 22,336.00 | 3,826.00 | 6,409.00 |
InCred Research Services Pvt Ltd | 22,912.00 | 3,759.00 | 6,072..00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 22,368.00 | 3,714.00 | 6,286.00 |
HDFC Securities Ltd | 21,630.00 | 3,608.00 | |
YES Securities (India) Ltd | 21,191.00 | 3,425.00 | 6,001.00 |
Nomura Equity Research | 20,754.00 | 3,403.00 | 5,828.00 |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 39,152.00 | 3,198.00 | 6,871.00 |
Average | 24,121.88 | 3,611.75 | 6,261.00 |
End
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
