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Informist, Monday, Aug. 4, 2025

 

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--Emkay's Singh: Gold prices seen at INR 110,000-INR 112,000/10 gm by Diwali
--CONTEXT: Emkay Global research analyst Riya Singh's comments in interview
--Emkay's Singh: Silver prices seen at INR 120,000-INR 125,000/kg by Diwali
--Emkay's Singh:9-carat gold jewellery hallmarking may eat into silver demand
--Emkay's Singh: See gold prices at $4,000/oz by 2026-end
--Emkay's Singh: Silver could rise again if tariffs are relaxed
--Emkay's Singh: Russia's share in Indian oil import basket may decrease
--Emkay's Singh: Difficult for LME copper price to break $10,000/tn

 

By Pallavi Singhal and Ashutosh Pati

 

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI – With rising global tensions, gold and silver prices in India are expected to remain exceptionally high during the upcoming Diwali festive season, Riya Singh, research analyst of commodities and currency at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., said.

 

According to her, gold prices are likely to hover around the range of INR 110,000–INR 112,000 per 10 grams around Diwali, while silver is projected to range from INR 120,000 to INR 125,000 per kilogram. These elevated levels mark a continuation of strong momentum in precious metals, although there is fear of these high prices tampering with traditional festive demand for precious metals.

 

MUTED JEWELLERY DEMAND

Historically, Diwali has driven a surge in jewellery purchases in India, but with retail gold prices reigning high, demand is likely to soften and remain subdued, Singh said. The steep price of gold, driven by robust central bank buying and geopolitical fears, has pushed many consumers toward alternatives such as gold ETFs and digital gold, instead of physical jewellery, she said. 

 

However, the recent hallmarking of nine-carat gold jewellery, is likely to boost demand for lightweight, budget-friendly pieces. Singh believes this could attract buyers who otherwise turn to silver for minimalist jewellery, potentially competing with, and even eating into, the silver jewellery segment. "I think you will see more demand into nine carat, 18 carat slabs rather than 22 carats or maybe 24 carat bull bars and coins," Singh said.

 

The acceptance of 18-carat gold in the minimalist segment is already established, and Singh expects both 9- and 18-carat options to gain traction, especially as gold prices climb. "But we still have to see how this will pan out, how the retail demand will accept that 9 carat or how the jewellers will push the 9 carat final products," she said.

PRECIOUS METALS RALLY

The surge in gold and silver prices, with gold rising 200% in the past six years, finds root in pandemic-induced uncertainty, geopolitical shocks, and aggressive purchases by major central banks, according to Singh. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict was a watershed, with Western sanctions freezing Russian assets and spurring central banks worldwide to hoard gold as a strategic buffer.

 

China is one of the world's biggest consumer markets. After the real estate market crash, Chinese investors shifted funds into gold ETFs and other vehicles. Turkey, battling inflation and Kazakhstan facing geopolitical risks piled into gold, joining Russia and India among top national buyers, as per Singh. According to her, it is this heavy central bank buying which fuelled and sustained the astonishing gold rally.

 

Even as some countries pause or slow their purchases on the back of record high prices of the metal, concerns over asset freezes and currency volatility keep precious metals in demand, she said. Furthermore, Singh sees Trump's presidency keeping markets volatile for the next two-three years at least. "And I think this volatility will keep gold supportive in the long run," she said.

 

For gold's outlook, Singh provided a price range of $3,000–$4,000 for the near future, with possibilities of reaching $4,500 over a 5–10 year span, if volatility persists and global consumption remains strong. Major corrections could drag prices toward $2,800–$2,500 range, but ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions make a sharp price drop unlikely at present, she said. In the medium term, Singh expects gold prices to touch $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.

 

The recent rally in silver has mostly been fuelled by its undervaluation to gold, wherein the gold-silver ratio had surged to 104, and strong momentum in silver ETFs in US as well as in India. If global trade tensions ease and tariffs are relaxed, "that will really help silver in again continuing the momentum."

 

CRUDE OIL

India, which had ramped up imports of discounted Russian crude to as much as 45% of its oil import basket post war, is expected to pare this down. New EU and potential US sanctions are likely to reduce India's share of Russian oil imports to somewhere around 28%--though not immediately to below 20%--according to Singh. Ongoing diplomatic engagement will shape the pace of this shift, with gradual adjustments already underway, she believes.

 

"I think we will definitely hit a bit of a pause on the import of Russian crude oil. But I don't think so it will be totally removed from our importing basket because that is still a good cushion for our energy security."

 

Singh expects crude oil prices to hover around $60-$65 per barrel for the rest of 2025. Despite significant supply hikes by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the past few months, Singh does not expect a surplus in the oil market this year.

 

BASE METALS

Prices of copper had surged in the US and were trading at a premium to LME prices after Trump had announced that the US will impose 50% tariffs on imports of the metal. This had led to a rush of the red metal into the US market as traders and companies shipped it in advance to avoid tariffs.

 

However, Trump has now announced that refined copper would not attract 50% import duty and the tariff was only on semi-finished copper products. Singh believes prices of copper will stabilise now as the "premium comes out of the market."

 

"I think the disparity (in LME and COMEX prices) will calm down a bit in the coming months," Singh said, especially once the traders figure out how to ship the metal out of the US. These need to be shipped out through Europe or Asia to prospective LME inventories. Singh added that it's difficult for copper prices on the LME to break and sustain the $10,000 per tonne level.

 

There's won't be much of an impact of these tariffs on India as "we have very minimal import of copper."  End

 

US$1 = INR 87.65

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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