Informist Poll
Strong dlr may keep gold in range with downward bias in Aug
This story was originally published at 19:21 IST on 4 August 2025
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By Afra Abubacker
MUMBAI – Market participants expect gold prices to remain range-bound with a downward bias in August. A firm US dollar and hawkish tone of the US Federal Reserve are seen weighing on prices, they said. While weaker US non-farm payroll data released on Friday spurred some renewed interest in gold, analysts say this movement is unlikely to sustain.
Gold prices edged higher on Monday as "an immediate reaction to non-farm payroll data," said Manoj Kumar Jain, director and head of commodity research, Prithvi Finmart. US non-farm payrolls rose by 73,000 in July, sharply below the market expectation of 110,000. The data pointed to a softer labour market than previously estimated and raised investor hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year.
However, Jain said prices may slip in the first fortnight of the month and largely consolidate through the rest of August, weighed down by continued strength in the dollar and resilient US economic data. "Gold prices in the first fortnight of August are seen slightly bearish. A strong dollar and the Fed's hawkish commentary, with no indication of a rate cut in September, will weigh on prices," he said.
The December gold futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is seen trading between INR 95,950 and INR 101,250 per 10 gm this month, according to the median of estimates from eight brokerages polled by Informist. On the COMEX, gold prices are expected to range between $3,220 and $3,420 an ounce. At 1738 IST, the most-active December contract on COMEX was up 0.6% at $3,422.3 per ounce, while the most-active October gold contract on MCX was 1.1% higher at INR 100,810 per 10 grams.
In July, gold prices showed signs of stabilisation after hitting record highs earlier this year. "Gold prices bounced in April, May, and June. In July, it consolidated," said Ajay Kedia, director, Kedia Advisory. Most analysts expect this consolidation trend to continue in August, unless fresh geopolitical tensions flare up or macroeconomic shocks emerge.
Despite weaker job creation data, the US unemployment rate was 4.2% in July, remaining in the narrow 4.0-4.2% range that has prevailed since May 2024. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.6% in June, exceeding forecasts of an 0.1% increase. US CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in June, largely in line with economists' expectations. These indicators led the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50% in its July meeting last week.
In addition, easing trade tensions, particularly between the US and Europe, have reduced near-term geopolitical risks, Kedia said. "Gold has exhausted its geopolitical premium," Kedia added, noting that the metal may face profit-booking pressure near $3,340–$3,350 per ounce.
Market participants will closely track upcoming data on US employment and inflation, updates on trade negotiations, and commentary from Fed officials to assess whether gold can break out of its current range in the coming weeks.
Following is the summary of the poll by Informist on gold prices in August and details of estimates by respondents, in alphabetical order:
|
Brokerage |
MCX support (INR/10 gm) |
MCX resistance (INR/10 gm) |
COMEX support ($/oz) |
COMEX resistance ($/oz) |
|
Axis Securities |
97,000 |
1,01,000 |
3,250 |
3,350 |
|
Emkay |
96700 |
1,01,500 |
-- |
-- |
|
Kedia |
94600 |
101500 |
3,220 |
3,386 |
|
LKP Securities |
96,000 |
1,01,000 |
3,180 |
3,400 |
|
Nirmal Bang |
95000 |
1,01,500 |
3,130 |
3,450 |
|
Prithvi Finmart |
96,000 |
1,01,000 |
3,240 |
3,454 |
|
Reliance Sec |
95,000 |
1,00,500 |
3,200 |
3,450 |
|
Ventura Securities |
95,900 |
1,01,500 |
3,230 |
3,420 |
|
Median |
95,950 |
1,01,250 |
3,220 |
3,420 |
End
US$1 = INR 87.6550
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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