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Informist, Monday, Aug. 4, 2025

 

By Rajesh Gajra

 

NEW DELHI – With analysts having estimated Bharti Airtel Ltd.'s average revenue per user to go up slightly by INR 2-INR 5 from the trailing quarter to INR 247-INR 250, and an increase in net subscriber additions in its largest mobile services segment, the telecom major will likely report steady consolidated top line and bottom line numbers for the June quarter.

 

The on-quarter growth in consolidated revenue will likely be in low-to-mid-single digits, helped significantly by the reported 7.4% growth in the June quarter revenue from the Airtel Africa operations and reined in by expected subdued revenue growth in the India operations.

 

The consolidated operating profit will likely grow in flat-to-low single-digit range on a quarter-on-quarter basis, helped by the reported 9% sequential rise in Airtel Africa's operating profit in the June quarter, and expected growth in the India home services and mobile services segments. The consolidated net profit will likely track the operating profit but will likely be hit by the absence of any large tax reversal that had boosted this number in the trailing quarter.

 

Besides India mobile services segment, analysts expect the on-quarter revenue performance in the June quarter to be steady in all other verticals and geographies, but the business-to-business, or B2B, segment, branded as Airtel Business, may see a reduction in revenue as the company continues to exit low-margin businesses. The India mobile services segment of Bharti Airtel contributes the most to the consolidated top line and operating profit of the company. In the March quarter, this segment's share in both consolidated revenue and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA, was 72%.

 

Airtel Africa plc, the overseas listed subsidiary of Bharti Airtel, declared its financial results for the June quarter on Jul. 24. The subsidiary caters to telecom customers in 14 countries in Africa and had a share of 23% in the consolidated revenue of Bharti Airtel and a 19% share in consolidated EBITDA in the March quarter. In reported currency terms, Airtel Africa's June quarter revenue was $1.42 billion, up 7.4% on quarter, and its EBITDA increased 9% on quarter to $679 million.

 

The India home services segment, which provides fixed-line telephone and broadband services for homes in around 1,476 cities, had a 4% share of both revenue and EBITDA in Jan-Mar. The company's digital TV services in India had a revenue and EBITDA share of 2?ch, while Airtel Business had a revenue share of 14% and an EBITDA share of 10% in the March quarter.

 

The company's passive infrastructure services segment, which is Bharti Airtel's subsidiary Indus Towers Ltd.'s operations, had a share of 21% in revenue and 20% in EBITDA in Jan-Mar. The company's operations in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka both had a near-zero revenue and EBITDA share.

 

Bharti Airtel will likely report a consolidated net profit of INR 73.88 billion in the June quarter, according to an average of estimates by eight brokerage firms. Excluding an outlier net profit estimate of INR 119.04 billion by brokerage JM Financial Institutional Securities--the highest among all--the consolidated net profit is seen falling 39% on quarter and increasing 62% on year to INR 67.43 billion. The rest of the net profit estimates vary from a high of INR 75.54 billion by Dolat Capital Market to a low of INR 61 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

 

Analysts see the consolidated revenue from operations increasing 2.8% on quarter and 28% on year to INR 492.13 billion in the latest quarter, according to the average of the eight estimates. Among the revenue estimates, Dolat has the highest at INR 500.60 billion and the lowest estimate is INR 482.25 billion by the institutional equities division of Kotak Securities. The EBITDA of the telecom company will likely be INR 277.17 billion.

 

Bharti Airtel will disclose its June quarter financial results Tuesday. In the March quarter, the company had reported a 25% on-quarter decline in its consolidated net profit to INR 110.22 billion. The fall was buffered by a large tax credit of INR 42.33 billion in the reporting quarter, compared with a tax credit of INR 3.76 billion in the December quarter. The consolidated revenue from operations of Bharti Airtel had increased 6.1% on quarter to INR 478.76 billion in the March quarter. Shares of the company have increased around 3.8% since the declarating of its Jan-Mar earnings.

 

As per the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India data, Bharti Airtel net added 1.21 million wireless subscribers in the June quarter. This rise in subscribers will help prop up the revenue growth of the company in the June quarter. Brokerage Antique Stock Broking, which estimates Bharti Airtel's revenue to go up 3.8% on quarter, said the India mobile services' average revenue per user may "inch up only 1.1% QoQ (quarter on quarter) to INR 248, mainly due to rise in data subscribers as July (2024) tariff hike was fully absorbed by last quarter (Jan-Mar)."

 

Low on-quarter revenue growth of around 2% will likely be driven by India mobile services, India home services, and Africa business, brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial said in its preview report. The brokerage expects June quarter revenue growth in India home services segment to be strong at 8% on quarter, "driven by FWA (fixed wireless access) ramp-up." In the March quarter, revenue from the segment had increased 5.8% on quarter to INR 15.96 billion. It also expects the Airtel Business segment's revenue "to further decline ~2% (around 2%) QoQ due to the rationalization of low-margin businesses."

 

On the consolidated EBITDA performance, Motilal estimates a low on-year increase of around 1% "as good show in" India mobile services, India home services, and Africa operations "will be offset by weaker performance in Enterprise (Airtel Business) and the absence of prior period reversals in Indus (Towers)." According to Centrum Broking, the consolidated EBITDA margin of Bharti Airtel will likely decline 35 basis points on quarter to 56.1% "as Q4FY25 (Jan-Mar) had certain one off writeback."

 

Investors will watch out for the management's commentary on the company's outlook for growth in the domestic mobile and other wireless services and its Africa mobile service business. Also watched will be an update on the company's strategic priority of accelerating the rollout of its optic fibre network. Other areas of interest will be opportunities for capital investments in Africa business, the trajectory of overall capital expenditure, and providing cloud services offering to the B2B market.

 

At 1446 IST, shares of Bharti Airtel traded at INR 1,915 on the National Stock Exchange, up 1.62%. According to brokerage research reports available with Informist, the stock currently has 15 'buy' calls from brokerages at an average target price of INR 1,936 and one 'hold' recommendation at a target price of INR 1,900. There are no sell calls on Bharti Airtel's shares at present.

 

Following are the June quarter consolidated earnings estimates for Bharti Airtel based on reports from eight brokerage firms in descending order of estimate of net profit:

 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
	(In INR million)
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	495,839	119,042	284,100
Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd	500,603	75,544	277,860
Antique Stock Broking Ltd	497,061	71,725	282,475
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	487,498	70,825	268,124
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	496,153	67,115	282,368
Kotak Institutional Equities	482,249	64,615	273,808
Centrum Broking Ltd	491,602	61,170	275,610
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	486,000	61,000	273,000
Average	492,126	67,428	277,168

 

 

End

US$1 = INR 87.60

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

 

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