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Informist, Thursday, Jul. 31, 2025

 

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--ISMA pegs 2025-26 gross sugar output 34.9 mln tn vs 29.5 mln tn in 2024-25 
--ISMA estimates 3.4 mln tn sugar diverted for ethanol output in 2024-25 
--ISMA urges govt to hike sugar minimum sale price 
--ISMA hopes to divert 5 mln tn sucrose for ethanol output in 2025-26 
--ISMA: Sucrose diversion subject to ethanol procurement price revisions 
--ISMA urges govt to allow 2 mln tn sugar exports in 2025-26 
--ISMA pegs 2024-25 sugar closing stock at 5.2 mln tn

NEW DELHI - India's gross sugar production is likely to rise 18.3% on year to 34.9 million tonnes in the upcoming 2025-26 sugar season starting October, according to the Indian Sugar Mills & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association's first preliminary estimates. Gross sugar output is estimated before sucrose diversion for ethanol production, and last year it was 29.5 million tonnes.

 

Though the sugarcane acreage is largely unchanged at 5.72 million hectares this season, gross sugar production is forecast to be higher due to the improvement in overall crop quality, ISMA Director General Deepak Ballani told reporters Thursday. Abundant rainfall in May and good southwest monsoon have helped enhance cane productivity and improve sugar recovery, he added. 

 

In 2024-25, the net sugar production dipped by over 18% on year to 26.1 million tonnes amid lower cane yields and a fall in sugar recovery. About 3.4 million tonnes of sucrose or sugar was diverted to make ethanol in the current year, down from the earlier estimate of 4.0 million tonnes. 

 

ISMA hopes to see 5.0 million tonnes of sugar diverted for ethanol making in 2025-26. However, Ballani stressed that sucrose diversion will be subject to revisions in the ethanol procurement prices.                                   

 

Ethanol production from sugarcane-based feedstocks has dropped amid unattractive prices, Ballani said. Citing the rise in production costs, ISMA has been demanding a hike in the minimum selling price of sugar and ethanol rates. But the government only increased prices of ethanol made from C-heavy molasses to INR 57.97 per litre from INR 56.28 per litre for 2024-25 (Nov-Oct). Ethanol made from sugarcane juice is priced at INR 65.61 per litre and B-heavy molasses at INR 60.73 per litre, unchanged from 2022-23. The minimum selling price of sugar is INR 31 per kilogram, unchanged since 2019. 

 

On higher ethanol blending beyond 20%, Ballani said ISMA has given its recommendations and hopes the roadmap for future blending targets will be released by the end of August. India has achieved 20% ethanol blending in petrol, five years ahead of its original 2030 target, the government said last week.

 

ISMA estimates the 2024-25 sugar season to close with 5.2 million tonnes of sugar as of Sept. 30. This is enough to meet sugar consumption requirements for two months, Ballani said. Citing comfortable closing stocks and higher sugar production expected in 2025-26, ISMA has urged the government to allow 2.0 million tonnes of sugar exports in the upcoming season. In 2024-25, the government allowed 1.0 million tonnes of exports, and about 7.2 million tonnes of sugar has been shipped so far, Ballani said. 

 

For the next season, ISMA estimates sugar consumption to be 28.4 million tonnes, up from 27.9 million tonnes. "Sugar consumption has not come down, but sugar purchases were slow as the pipeline was full," Ballani said. The 2024-25 sugar season had opened with a high carryover stock of 8.0 million tonnes. 

 

Among major sugar-producing states, Maharashtra is seen leading with 13.27 million tonnes of gross sugar output in 2025-26(Oct-Sep), up from 9.33 million tonnes last year. The state has witnessed an 8% increase in cane acreage, ISMA said.

 

Meanwhile, cane cultivation in Uttar Pradesh fell by 3% from last year. "However, the overall condition of the standing crop is much better than last year...cane development initiatives at the mill level, including timely corrective measures and varietal replacements, the incidence of red rot and other disease infestations is expected to remain minimal in the 2025-26 sugar season," ISMA said. As a result, Uttar Pradesh's gross sugar output is seen at 10.25 million tonnes, up from 10.07 million tonnes last year. 

 

In Karnataka, which has a 6% increase in cane area from last year, ISMA pegs gross sugar output for 2025-26 at 6.62 million tonnes, up from 5.37 million tonnes last year.

 

ISMA will reassess the crop condition in the coming months and will release its second preliminary estimates in September. End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

 

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