Earnings Outlook
Maruti Suzuki Q1 revenue growth seen tame, PAT down
This story was originally published at 13:02 IST on 30 July 2025
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By Anand JC
NEW DELHI – Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. is expected to report a moderate single-digit growth in its revenue for the June quarter, in line with its wholesale sales for the period, according to analysts. If the estimates are met, the bottom line of the country's biggest passenger vehicle maker will have contracted for the third time in the last four quarters.
Maruti Suzuki, India's biggest passenger vehicle company, is expected to report a net profit of INR 30.2 billion for the June quarter, down 17% on year, according to the average of 11 brokerages' estimates.
These forecasts vary widely; Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers' expectation of INR 10 billion profit is the lowest and InCred Research Services' estimate of INR 36.1 billion is the highest. Excluding Anand Rathi's estimate, the average profit forecast of 10 brokerages rises to INR 32.2 billion, down nearly 12% on year.
The Swift maker's revenue for the latest quarter is expected to rise 2.6% on year to INR 364.5 billion, the average of 11 analysts' estimates shows. YES Securities' (India) expectation of INR 358.6 billion is the lowest and InCred's estimate of INR 377.4 billion is the highest.
SALES PERFORMANCE
It was a difficult quarter for India's passenger vehicle makers as demand for the segment is yet to recover. While utility vehicles continue to show a positive momentum, demand for smaller passenger cars has been evaporating at a worrying rate, as the Maruti Suzuki management had pointed out in the last few quarters.
"Subdued commodity costs continue to support margins, but could be more than offset by rising discounts, especially for the small car segment, where demand is very weak," Nomura Equity Research said in a note.
The modest increase in the Gurugram-based automaker's revenue is in line with its June quarter sales. Maruti Suzuki sold 527,861 automobile units in the June quarter, up 1.1% on year but down 13% on year.
For more context, India's love for small cars has been fading away bit by bit in the last decade, in a segment traditionally dominated by Maruti Suzuki. According to media reports, the share of small cars in the passenger vehicle market in 2023-24 (Apr-Mar) was around 27%, much lower than the over-47% share in FY18. This fall in share of small cars, which were usually sold in high numbers, tend to affect the operating leverage of a company, and give a volume-backed margin stability that sport utility vehicles do not give.
Companies sold 1.01 million passenger vehicles in India in the June quarter, down 1.4% on year, according to data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Companies sold 1.01 million passenger vehicles in India in the June quarter, down 1.4% on year, according to data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Of this, Maruti Suzuki sold 393,572 units, down 6% on year--reflecting an underperformance domestically.
Indian companies sold 204,330 passenger vehicles abroad, up 13% on year. Of this, Maruti Suzuki sold 96,181 units, up 38% on year--reflecting an outperformance in the international market.
OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE
Maruti Suzuki's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the June quarter are expected to be INR 39.1 billion, according to the average of nine analyst views. This translates to a 13% on year and an 8% sequential fall.
Analysts expect the company's operating profit and margin to fall year-on-year for the latest quarter mainly due to higher discounts and higher input costs. The company offered discounts close to INR 30,000 on average during the quarter, among its highest since the third quarter of 2019-20 (Apr-Mar), according to Nomura.
The average selling price of Maruti Suzuki's vehicles in the quarter-ended June is expected to increase around 1% on year and 2% sequentially, driven by a higher mix of sport utility vehicles in its portfolio and exports, according to Centrum Broking.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects the growth in realisation to remain flat on year during the quarter under review, at around INR 680,850 per car. In contrast, realisation per car had increased by roughly 3.1% in FY25.
The company will disclose its financials for the June quarter Thursday. At 1231 IST, shares of Maruti Suzuki traded at INR 12,620 on the National Stock Exchange, up 1.2%. These shares have risen roughly 6% since the company reported its March quarter earnings.
Despite the cloudy outlook for the passenger vehicle segment, as many as 21 brokerages have a buy or buy-equivalent call on Maruti Suzuki, at an average of INR 13,658 per share, according to the research reports available with Informist. Two brokerages have a hold call while none have a sell call.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. based on reports from 11 brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit:
|
Brokerage |
Net sales (in INR mln) |
Net profit (in INR mln) |
EBITDA (in INR mln) |
|
InCred Research Services Pvt Ltd |
3,77,364.00 |
36,051.00 |
44,820.00 |
|
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd |
3,65,519.00 |
33,931.00 |
40,262.00 |
|
Nomura Equity Research |
3,66,824.00 |
33,532.00 |
37,314.00 |
|
YES Securities (India) Ltd |
3,58,643.00 |
33,023.00 |
39,173.00 |
|
Centrum Broking Ltd |
3,63,240.00 |
31,782.00 |
37,777.00 |
|
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd |
3,66,582.00 |
31,415.00 |
40,324.00 |
|
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd |
3,61,441.00 |
31,307.00 |
36,867.00 |
|
Kotak Institutional Equities |
3,66,186.00 |
30,926.00 |
37,064.00 |
|
HDFC Securities Ltd |
3,59,423.00 |
30,784.00 |
|
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd |
3,59,394.00 |
29,519.00 |
37,866.00 |
|
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd |
3,64,790.00 |
9,959.00 |
|
|
Average |
3,64,491.45 |
30,202.64 |
39,051.89 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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