Earnings Outlook
India-Pak conflict to dent InterGlobe Aviation Q1 earnings
This story was originally published at 09:00 IST on 30 July 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 30, 2025
By Anand JC
NEW DELHI - InterGlobe Aviation Ltd., the parent company of budget carrier IndiGo airlines, is expected to report a multi-year low revenue growth and a double-digit fall in its bottom line for the June quarter, weighed down by geopolitical tensions, including the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan. The company likely saw weak load factors and yield during the reporting quarter due to the events in May, according to analysts.
Analysts expect InterGlobe Aviation to report a net profit of INR 24.5 billion for the June quarter, down just over 10% on year, according to an average of five brokerages' estimates. Kotak Institutional Equities' expectation of an INR 21.7-billion bottom line is the lowest while Nuvama Wealth Management's forecast of INR 27.7 billion is the highest.
Consensus estimates show the company's revenue for the reporting quarter is likely to rise 8% on year to INR 211.1 billion. This would be InterGlobe Aviation's slowest year-on-year revenue growth since the March quarter of 2020-21 (Apr-Mar). Emkay Global Financial Services' view of INR 208.8 billion in revenue is the lowest and Motilal Oswal Financial Services' expectation of INR 213.5 billion is the highest.
"1QFY26E (Apr-Jun) is expected to reflect the impact of geopolitical disruptions – most notably in the hospitality and aviation sectors," Prabhudas Lilladher said in a note. IndiGo flew a little over 27 million passengers during the June quarter, nearly 3% fewer than 27.8 million during the March quarter.
Prabhudas Lilladher expects InterGlobe Aviation to report a load factor of 85.6% for the quarter under review, as 'Operation Sindoor' impacted passenger growth in May. The passenger load factor measures how efficiently an operator is filling available seats.
IndiGo's passenger load factor for the June quarter likely stood at 85.8%, according to Informist's calculation based on monthly data from Directorate General of Civil Aviation. The load factor was 86.7% in the year-ago quarter and 87.4% in the March quarter. Kotak expects the metric to fall 200 basis points on year to around 85%.
An average of five brokerages' estimates InterGlobe Aviation's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortisation, and rentals for the June quarter at INR 57.3 billion. Estimates for EBITDAR vary widely – Kotak's forecast of INR 52.4 billion is the lowest while Nuvama's expectation of INR 64.3 billion is the highest.
Aviation companies incur costs on renting aircraft, warehouses, and engines, which are crucial for their operations. The budget carrier incurred expenses towards supplementary rentals and aircraft repair and maintenance totalling INR 112.2 billion for 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), around 15% of overall expenses.
Kotak expects the aviation company's yields to remain flat, factoring in a negative 50-basis-point impact of more international volumes compared to domestic. InterGlobe Aviation had reported a yield of INR 5.24 for the year-ago quarter, and INR 5.32 for the March quarter. This metric measures the average revenue earned by an airline from each passenger for every kilometre flown.
Motilal Oswal and Kotak expect InterGlobe Aviation's available seat kilometre to grow 15% on year for the reporting quarter. Available seat kilometres is a measure of passenger carrying capacity and is equal to the number of seats available multiplied by the number of kilometres travelled by the aircraft.
InterGlobe Aviation will detail its June quarter financials on Wednesday. On Tuesday, shares of InterGlobe Aviation closed at INR 5,756 on the National Stock Exchange, marginally down. The shares are up roughly 6% since the company reported its March quarter earnings.
Of the nine brokerage recommendations available with Informist for InterGlobe Aviation, six have a buy recommendation at an average share price of INR 5,788 per share. Two have a hold call, and one has a sell call.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for InterGlobe Aviation based on reports from five broking firms, in descending order of net profit:
Brokerage | Net sales (in INR mln) | Net profit (in INR mln) | EBITDAR (in INR mln) |
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 2,10,244.00 | 27,735.00 | 64,344.00 |
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd | 2,10,179.00 | 25,767.00 | 60,084.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 2,13,500.00 | 23,800.00 | 52,700.00 |
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd | 2,08,788.00 | 23,224.00 | 56,734.00 |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 2,12,674.00 | 21,726.00 | 52,438.00 |
Average | 2,11,077.00 | 24,450.40 | 57,260.00 |
End
Edited by Avishek Dutta
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
