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Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 29, 2025

 

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--IMF raises India's GDP growth forecast for FY26 by 20 bps to 6.4%
--IMF raises India's GDP growth forecast for FY27 by 10 bps to 6.4%
--IMF:Higher India growth forecast reflects more benign external environment
--IMF raises global growth forecast for 2025 by 20 bps to 3.0%
--IMF raises global growth forecast for 2026 by 10 bps to 3.1%
--IMF raises US growth forecast for 2025 by 10 bps to 1.9%
--IMF raises US growth forecast for 2026 by 30 bps to 2.0%
--IMF raises China's growth forecast for 2025 by 80 bps to 4.8%
--IMF raises China's growth forecast for 2026 by 20 bps to 4.2%
--IMF: Global growth view reflects front-loading in international trade
--IMF: Raised global growth view on lower average effective US tariff rates

 

NEW DELHI – The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for India's GDP growth for the current financial year started April by 20 basis points to 6.4%. The Fund has also raised the growth forecast for FY27 to 6.4%, 10 bps higher than previously projected.

 

The revised growth forecasts for both years reflect "a more benign external environment than assumed in the April reference forecast," the IMF said in its July edition of the World Economic Outlook report. In terms of calendar years, India's GDP growth is projected at 6.7% for 2025 and 6.4% for 2026.

 

IMF's growth forecast for India in FY26 is slightly less optimistic than the projections by the Reserve Bank of India. The Indian central bank has projected India's GDP to grow 6.5% in FY26. The Indian economy grew 6.5% in FY25.

 

Earlier this month, the Asian Development Bank lowered India's growth forecast by 20 bps to 6.5%. The World Bank has forecast India's FY26 GDP growth at 6.3%. The IMF itself had lowered India's growth forecast by 30 bps to 6.2% in April because of high global uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump's trade policies.

 

The IMF raised its forecast for global growth on the back of stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs, lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April, and an improvement in financial conditions. The IMF projects global growth at 3.0% in 2025, 20 bps higher than previously expected. For 2026, global growth is seen at 3.1%, 10 bps higher than projected in April. Global growth was 3.3% last year.

 

The US economy is projected to grow 1.9% in 2025, 10 bps higher than expected earlier. The world's largest economy is projected to expand 2.0% in 2026, 30 bps higher than the April forecast. The US economy grew 2.8% in 2024.

 

The IMF sharply raised the growth forecast for China by 80 bps to 4.8% in 2025. For 2026, China's growth forecast has been raised by 20 bps to 4.2%. China's GDP is estimated to have grown 5.0% last year. "This revision reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and the significant reduction in US–China tariffs," the IMF said.  End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

 

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