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Informist, Friday, Jul. 25, 2025

By Gopika Balasubramanium

MUMBAI – The benchmark equity indices are likely to fall further next week as there is still uncertainty among traders regarding the India-US trade deal even as the Aug. 1 deadline approaches. Analysts also said there is a bearish sentiment in the market as the June quarter earnings have been disappointing and many companies see their earnings picking up only in the second half of the current financial year. Investors will now focus on earnings from Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, and Bharat Electronics.

"Nifty (50) will likely go down to 24500 points," said Kshitija Salvi, technical analyst at IDBI Capital Markets & Securities. "There is a bearish sentiment in the market and selling pressure will be there next week." The 50-stock index is likely to be in a broader range of 24500-25500 points. For Monday, the Nifty 50 is likely to find support at 24500-24000 points and face resistance at 25250 points, Salvi said.

Friday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24837 points, down 225.10 points or 0.9%. The benchmark index fell below the psychologically important level of 25000 points and closed at a one-month low. The index also closed lower for the fourth straight session.

It is important for the Nifty 50 to hold above 24800 points. If this level is breached, the index can fall up to 24450 points, two senior technical and derivatives analysts said. Both analysts see a recovery towards 25000 points difficult in the short term. This is mainly because corporate results for the June quarter so far have been disappointing, they said. 

A delay in the trade deal between India and the US and subdued earnings for the June quarter are the reasons for the bearish sentiment in the market, said Sunny Agrawal, head of research at SBICAP Securities. Even as the deadline looms, there is a lot of uncertainty on when the deal will be signed and in what form, he said. India will negotiate sector by sector on tariffs rather than on a broader level, he added.

If the deal is not signed before Aug. 1, Indian imports to the US will face 25% reciprocal tariffs. Earlier, analysts had said that if India failed to cut a deal that would see lower US tariffs on imports from India than from competitors such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines, and especially China, it would disappoint the market. This week Japan and US signed an agreement where imports from Japan will attract 15% tariff instead of 25%. There are reports that the US and the European Union will sign a similar deal.  End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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