Earnings Outlook
Low coal prices, higher volumes to aid SAIL Q1 PAT, revenue
This story was originally published at 13:10 IST on 25 July 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Jul. 25, 2025
By Ashutosh Pati
MUMBAI – State-owned Steel Authority of India Ltd. is expected to post a strong performance for the June quarter on an annual basis, with its bottom line rising drastically on a lower base, because of lower coal prices and stronger volumes, according to analysts. However, the company's bottom line and top line are expected to fall sequentially due to seasonality and the base effect of a strong March quarter.
The company is expected to post a net profit of INR 11.34 billion, rising over a hundred times on year, according to the average of the estimates of 11 brokerage firms. The surge in net profit is because of a low base from the year-ago quarter when the company had incurred a one-time loss of INR 3.12 billion. The company had paid INR 3.09 billion related to perquisites and allowance payable to executive employees of the company and INR 24.2 million towards the settlement of contractual disputes. However, the net profit is expected to be down nearly 4% sequentially. Estimates for the company's net profit range from INR 7.01 billion by Antique Stock Broking Ltd. to INR 14.82 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd.
SAIL is expected to have earned revenues of INR 258.96 billion in the June quarter, according to consensus estimates. The revenue is seen rising nearly 8% on year but falling over 11% from the previous quarter. Brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities has the lowest estimate for the company's revenue at INR 246.19 billion, while Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the highest estimate at INR 275.50 billion.
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. said coal prices have declined $10-$11 per tonne sequentially. The brokerage did not mention how much impact this would have on SAIL's raw material costs. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. expects the steel major's sales volume to have risen 17% on year to 4.7 million tonnes in the June quarter. However, the sales volume is seen falling 12% sequentially due to elevated sales from inventories and third-party volumes in the previous quarter. Kotak expects the company's sales volumes to increase 10% on year but decrease 17% from the previous quarter.
The steel behemoth's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the June quarter are pegged at INR 34.82 billion, up nearly 44% on year but down around 8% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerage firms. Estimates for the company's EBITDA range from INR 29.08 billion to INR 39.47 billion. Most brokerages expect SAIL's EBITDA to increase due to lower coal prices, a key raw material, and better realisations on steel. Kotak expects steel realisation to increase by around 4% from the trailing quarter. Nuvama said that the company's realisations on steel are expected to be up INR 2,700 per tonne from the March quarter.
Emkay Global expects the company's crude steel production to rise around 14% on year to 4.8 million tonnes in the June quarter. SAIL had said that it expects crude steel production to increase to over 20 million tonnes in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar). The company produced 19.20 million tonnes of crude steel in each of the last two financial years.
The company will detail its June quarter earnings Friday. Investors and analysts will track the company's guidance on capacity expansion, debt reduction, and realisations, analysts said. At 1220 IST Friday, shares of SAIL were 4.2% lower at INR 130.44 on the National Stock Exchange. Since reporting its March quarter earnings on May. 28, shares of the company have risen over 1%.
Of the 13 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, four have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock, seven have a 'hold' and equivalent rating, while two have a 'sell' rating. Among these, the average target price for the 'hold' rating is INR 127.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for SAIL based on reports compiled by Informist from 11 brokerages in descending order by the estimate of net profit:
Brokerage firm | Net sales | Net profit | EBITDA |
(In INR million) | |||
YES Securities (India) Ltd | 259,937.00 | 14,815.00 | 37,933.00 |
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd | 264,900.00 | 13,900.00 | 37,700.00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 273,439.00 | 13,420.00 | 39,465.00 |
IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd | 258,759.00 | 12,261.00 | 35,171.00 |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 246,191.00 | 11,625.00 | 34,415.00 |
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 260,363.00 | 11,580.00 | 35,316.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 275,500.00 | 11,500.00 | 33,400.00 |
HDFC Securities Ltd | 259,200.00 | 11,230.00 | 34,410.00 |
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd | 248,394.00 | 8,719.00 | |
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd | 254,600.00 | 8,700.00 | 31,300.00 |
Antique Stock Broking Ltd | 247,259.00 | 7,014.00 | 29,078.00 |
Average | 258,958.36 | 11,342.18 | 34,818.80 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Avishek Dutta
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
