Earnings Outlook
Petronet LNG Q1 net profit seen down on weaker gas demand
This story was originally published at 15:19 IST on 24 July 2025
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By Pallavi Singhal
NEW DELHI – Petronet LNG Ltd., India's largest importer of liquefied natural gas, is expected to report an on-year decline in its net profit and revenue for the June quarter, due to sluggish power demand and volatile natural gas prices. Lower natural gas consumption, because of an early monsoon and weaker electricity demand, will likely weigh on the company's performance, according to analysts. Petronet LNG's Dahej terminal operated at around 87% capacity during the quarter, down from over 100% during the same period last year.
The company's consolidated net profit for the June quarter is seen falling 24% on year to INR 8.7 billion, according to an average of estimates by 12 brokerages available with Informist. The company's consolidated revenue is estimated to decline 15% to INR 114.1 billion on account of a double-digit decline in volume, according to analysts. The company had reported a net profit of INR 11.42 billion and a revenue of INR 134.15 billion in the corresponding quarter a year ago.
Sequentially, the company's net profit is expected to fall 19% and revenue is expected to decline 7.4%. Kotak Institutional Equities has the highest estimate for Petronet LNG's net profit at INR 9.73 billion. Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. has the lowest net profit expectation of INR 8 billion.
The highest revenue estimate is from Antique Stock Broking Ltd. at INR 125.4 billion while Systematix has the lowest estimate at INR 97.6 billion. For the March quarter, the company had reported a net profit of INR 10.7 billion on a revenue of INR 123.16 billion.
The company's volumes are seen falling on the back of higher spot prices of liquefied natural gas, which were up 11% on year, averaging $12.4 per million British thermal units in the reporting quarter, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report. "Spot LNG prices have been fluctuating in recent times, impacting the profitability of LNG importers like Petronet LNG...This volatility in prices has made it challenging for companies to maintain their margins," the report said. Petronet LNG's volumes are expected to fall 17% on year on a larger base where power demand was higher during the corresponding quarter in FY25, according to Nuvama.
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. estimates Dahej and Kochi terminal utilisation at 87% and 19%, respectively. Petronet LNG controls nearly 50% of the domestic regassified LNG capacity, which includes its flagship terminal at Dahej, with a capacity of 17.5 million tonnes per annum and a 5-million tonne per annum terminal in Kochi.
Petronet LNG is expected to post earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 12.40 billion for the June quarter, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The estimates for EBITDA range from INR 11.24 billion by Systematix to INR 15.09 billion from Kotak Institutional Equities.
Shares of Petronet LNG have fallen about 4% from May 19, the day it announced March quarter earnings. At 1516 IST, shares of the company were at INR 307.20 on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.2% from previous close.
Of the 16 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' rating on Petronet LNG, two have a 'hold' rating, and four have a 'sell' recommendation. The average target price of the buy recommendations is INR 386 and that of the sell calls is INR 295. The company will detail its financial results Friday.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Petronet LNG based on reports from 12 brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit:
Brokerage | Net sales (in INR million) | Net profit (In INR million) | EBITDA (in INR million) |
Kotak Institutional Equities | 122,142.00 | 9,731.00 | 15,089.00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd. | 109,984.00 | 9,425.00 | 13,330.00 |
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd. | 111,595.00 | 9,166.00 | 12,631.00 |
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. | 122,979.00 | 9,064.00 | 12,461.00 |
Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd. | 99,212.10 | 8,758.20 | 12,189.20 |
ICICI Securities Ltd. | 115,100.00 | 8,600.00 | 12,200.00 |
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | 113,942.00 | 8,555.00 | 11,826.00 |
Antique Stock Broking Ltd. | 125,401.00 | 8,551.00 | 12,151.00 |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. | 121,605.00 | 8,213.00 | 12,210.00 |
YES Securities (India) Ltd. | 114,369.00 | 8,174.00 | 11,600.00 |
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd. | 115,200.00 | 8,100.00 | 11,900.00 |
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. | 97,598.00 | 8,019.00 | 11,242.00 |
Average | 114,093.93 | 8,696.35 | 12,402.43 |
End
US$1 = INR 86.39
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Nishant Maher
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