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Informist, Monday, Jul. 21, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The El Nino Southern Oscillation is expected to remain normal at least till December, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report. Neither El Nino nor La Nina are likely until at least December, it said. This is consistent with forecasts of five of the eight international models it reviewed.

 

However, the remaining three international models indicate "borderline La Nina" levels till December. However, there is a relatively large spread in the model forecasts, indicating greater uncertainty than usual in the forecast outcomes, the bureau said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier, hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation stood at 0.1 degree Celsius as of Jul. 13, suggesting neutral conditions. For La Nina to emerge, ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degree Celsius. For El Nino, the temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degree Celsius.

 

The bureau said the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral and will remain so at least till the end of August. The index may touch the negative threshold briefly between now and August before returning to neutral values, it said.

 

A neutral Indian Ocean Dipole indicates typical weather patterns without any significant anomalies in India, favouring a healthy southwest monsoon. As of Jul. 13, the value of the index stood at (-)0.15 degree Celsius. The index has steadily decreased during May and June, but remains within the neutral range, the bureau said. 

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degree Celsius as typical of a positive index, and values below (?)0.4 degree Celsius as typical of a negative index.

 

The India Meteorological Department has said overall rainfall in the country during Jun-Sept is likely to be 106% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 4%. From Jun. 1-Jul. 20, the country has received 7?ove-normal rainfall for the period at 366.4 millimetres, the Indian weather department said.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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