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Informist, Monday, Jul. 21, 2025

MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center sees an "enhanced" probability of above-normal rainfall in India from August to October, it said in its monthly report on climate outlook for Aug-Jan. Though El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions are likely from August to January, the probability of a La Nina event at the end of the forecast period has increased slightly, with the Center's El Nino-Southern Oscillation model alert system shifting to "La Nina Watch", it said.

The India Meteorological Department said overall rainfall in the country during Jun-Sept is likely to be 106% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 4%. 

Chances of El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions start at near 51.6% in August and decrease to 49.4% in January, showing a small probability of a La Nina event after January, the climate centre said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions generally mean near-average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be (-)0.31 degrees Celsius in August, with a slight decrease to (-)0.51 degrees Celsius by November before it climbs back up to (-)34 degrees Celsius in January. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

Sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to be in a weak negative along the equator from August to October, and a slight intensification of negative anomalies is expected for the rest of the forecast period, the center said. A negative anomaly refers to cooler-than-average temperatures on the ocean's surface, while a positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature is warmer than the reference value.

The climate centre has forecast a strong probability of above-normal temperatures for most of the globe, except the central and eastern tropical Pacific, Indian subcontinent, Australia, and Sahel region for the forecast period.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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