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Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 15, 2025

By Anshul Choudhary

MUMBAI – Reliance Industries Ltd. is likely to see an all-around performance in the June quarter with three major businesses – telecommunications, retail and refinery – expected to report year-on-year growth in their operating profits. Its oil-to-chemicals business finally saw better margins during the quarter, according to analysts, which helped the segment recover from the poor performance seen throughout the previous financial year.

While the oil-to-chemicals business is expected to see a turnaround, its telecom and retail businesses continue on their growth path. This means the conglomerate's consolidated net profit during the quarter is likely to surge nearly 32% on year, the highest quarterly growth in net profit in nearly three years. Sequentially, the net profit is expected to rise 3%.

Its consolidated net profit during the June quarter may come in at INR 199.54 billion, according to estimates by 10 brokerages. The highest net profit estimate was given by YES Securities at nearly INR 237 billion, while the lowest projection was of INR 189 billion by ICICI Securities.

Further, it is possible the company's consolidated net profit may top even the above estimates as several brokerages said they have not accounted for one-off gains from the company's stake sale in Asian Paints. Kotak Institutional Equities expects the company may earn a post-tax income of INR 90 billion during the quarter from the stake sale in Asian Paints.

Reliance Industries is set to report its quarterly earnings Friday. Its shares have gained 8.5% since the company last announced its quarterly earnings in April. Tuesday, shares of RIL closed at INR 1,485.40 on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.1%.

The sharp growth in profits is expected to be on the back of higher margins across the three businesses as its year-on-year consolidated revenue growth during the June quarter may come down to just 3.6%. Its revenue had risen nearly 11% on year in the March quarter and 12% in the June quarter last year.

The company is expected to report a consolidated revenue of INR 2.400 trillion during the quarter, according to estimates by 10 brokerages. Sequentially, the revenue may decline over 8%. The highest revenue projection was given by Motilal Oswal Financial Services at INR 2.661 trillion, while the lowest estimate was INR 2.215 trillion by Nuvama Wealth Management.

Better margins are likely to benefit the company at the operating level as well. Its consolidated EBITDA, excluding other income, is expected to rise over 16% on year during the quarter to nearly INR 450 billion. EBITDA refers to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation. 

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The company's oil-to-chemicals business, its largest segment in terms of revenue, is expected to report strong growth in earnings on better margins. ICICI Securities expects gross refining margin for the segment to improve $0.4 per barrel on quarter, which is likely to more than offset the impact of a shutdown of one refinery unit during the quarter.

Kotak Equities, Nuvama Wealth, and Emkay Global Financial Services expect the segment's EBITDA to rise around 19%. The segment's EBITDA in the year-ago period was INR 130.93 billion.

Its telecommunications business, housed under the 'Jio' brand, is expected to show strong growth on higher average revenue per user and net addition of subscribers during the quarter. Kotak Equities and Nuvama expect Jio's ARPU to rise over 15% on year and nearly 2% on quarter. Its ARPU in the March quarter was INR 206.20 per month and the same in June quarter last year was INR 181.70. Owing to this, Kotak Equities expects the digital services segment's EBITDA to rise 19% on year and nearly 4% on quarter to over INR 156 billion.

Among others, its oil and gas business is likely to be weak owing to lower volumes from its KG-D6 block. Brokerages Kotak, Nuvama, and Emkay expect the segment's EBITDA to decline 6-10% on year. The segment's EBITDA in the June quarter last year was INR 52.10 billion. 

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Reliance Industries, in billion rupees, based on reports compiled by Informist from 10 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit:

Brokerages	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA (excluding other income)
YES Securities (India) Ltd	2,509.00	236.93	459.27
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	2,275.90	202.70	451.00
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	2,661.00	200.00	453.00
Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd	2,255.12	196.00	453.69
Kotak Institutional Equities	2,294.76	195.17	444.78
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	2,463.11	194.59	444.61
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	2,214.82	194.43	450.20
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	2,487.82	193.50	448.83
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	2,384.22	193.37	449.71
ICICI Securities Ltd	2,461.50	188.70	444.80
Average	2,400.72	199.54	449.99

End

US$1 = INR 85.81

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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