Earnings Outlook
Fall in NIM, high costs to cap Axis Bank's Q1 PAT growth
This story was originally published at 21:39 IST on 15 July 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 15, 2025
By Siddhi Chauhan
MUMBAI – Axis Bank's bottom line is expected to see a muted growth in the quarter ended June due to a contraction in net interest margin and elevated costs, brokerages tracking the private-sector bank said. According to the average of estimates by 16 brokerage firms, the bank is seen posting a net profit of INR 63.85 billion in Apr-Jun, up 5.8% on year, but down 10.3% on quarter.
Estimates for net profit of the company ranged from INR 59.72 billion to INR 71.06 billion. The highest estimate for net profit was INR 71.06 billion which was given by IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd, while the lowest estimate for the same was INR 59.72 billion given by Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
"Axis would report relatively soft results due to weak margins and elevated credit cost," Emkay Global Financial Services which sees the bank's net profit at INR 64.33 billion said. "Slower growth, margin contraction, and elevated credit cost to keep earnings in check."
Most brokerage firms expect a moderation in the net interest margin to eat into the private bank's net profit for the June quarter. Brokerages expect the bank's net interest margin to fall by 10 to 20 basis points on quarter. In the quarter ended March, the net interest margin had fallen by 4 bps to 3.97%. ICICI Securities expects the net interest margin to fall by 10 bps, while Kotak Institutional Equities sees a 20 bps fall in the net interest margin for the reporting quarter.
Margins are broadly expected to be lower across industry in the June quarter following the Reserve Bank of India's 75 bps cut in the repo rate in Apr-Jun quarter.
Slow growth in this quarter is also expected to weigh on the bank's bottom line, brokerages said. "We expect NII (net interest income) to grow by 3.2% YoY on account of muted loan growth. Expect advances and deposits growth to see a slowdown to 8.3% and 9.7% YoY respectively," said IDBI Capital Market Services, which sees the bank's net interest income at INR 138.84 billion.
Kotak Institutional Equities which sees the net interest income at INR 135.39 billion sees the loan growth at 7% on year, while sequentially they expect the same to be flat. In the Jan-Mar quarter, the bank's balance sheet grew 9% on year and stood at INR 16.09 trillion as of Mar. 31. The growth of deposits was higher compared with advances growth. Deposits were up 10% on year and advances were up 8% on year.
Most brokerage firm expects marginal growth in the net interest income sequentially for the quarter ended June due to contraction in net interest margin. The bank's net interest income, meanwhile, is seen rising 2.8% on year to INR 138.21 billion, as per the average of estimates of 16 brokerages. Sequentially, the net interest income is seen largely unchanged.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Nuvama Wealth Management, and YES Securities expect slippages and credit costs to remain elevated in the reporting quarter. For the quarter ended June, Kotak Institutional Equities expects the slippages of INR 60 billion which amounts to 2.3% of loans to be led by retail segment. In Jan-Mar, the gross slippages fell to 1.90% from 2.13% in the previous quarter and net slippages stood at 0.81%, against 1.40% a quarter ago. The annualised credit cost stood at 0.84% in Jan-Mar.
Axis Bank financial results for Apr-Jun will be announced on Thursday. On Tuesday, shares of the bank were 0.6% down at INR 1,165.90 on the National Stock Exchange.
Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates for Axis Bank based on reports from 16 brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit:
| Brokerage Name | Net Interest Income (in INR million) | Net Profit (in INR million) |
| IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd. | 1,38,838.00 | 71,061.00 |
| Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd | 1,38,298.00 | 67,431.00 |
| Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. | 1,42,120.00 | 66,783.00 |
| Antique Stock Broking Ltd | 1,38,847.00 | 66,246.00 |
| Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. | 1,38,100.00 | 65,100.00 |
| Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd | 1,38,361.00 | 64,999.00 |
| Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. | 1,37,461.00 | 64,325.00 |
| JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. | 1,38,727.00 | 63,855.00 |
| Average | 1,38,213.88 | 63,846.31 |
| Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. | 1,37,995.00 | 63,149.00 |
| Centrum Broking Ltd | 1,37,897.00 | 62,963.00 |
| YES Securities (India) Ltd. | 1,39,486.00 | 61,824.00 |
| Nomura Equity Research | 1,35,500.00 | 61,600.00 |
| ICICI Securities Ltd | 1,40,134.00 | 61,369.00 |
| IIFL Capital Services Ltd | 1,37,800.00 | 60,700.00 |
| Kotak Institutional Equities | 1,35,386.00 | 60,414.00 |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. | 1,36,472.00 | 59,722.00 |
Average | 1,38,213.88 | 63,846.31 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
