Agricultural Consumption
Global agricultural consumption to rise 13% by 2034, says FAO
This story was originally published at 20:23 IST on 15 July 2025
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NEW DELHI – The Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN has projected a 13% rise in total consumption of agricultural commodities and fish products by 2034 at constant prices. This growth, according to a report by the organisation, will be driven primarily by low- and middle-income countries, where expanding and increasingly affluent populations will lead to increased demand for diverse and nutritious food.
However, while half of the consumption growth in middle-income countries is attributed to per capita increases, three-quarters of the growth in low-income countries is based on a rise in population, as per the report.
Rising disposable incomes and urbanisation, particularly in middle-income countries, are expected to lead to a shift in dietary patterns towards more diverse and nutritious food, including livestock and fish products. The share of total calories in diets contributed by livestock and fish products is projected to rise 6% globally by 2034, according to the report. In lower-middle-income countries, a more pronounced 25% growth will bring the average daily per capita intake of nutrient-rich food to 364 calories, surpassing the 300 calories included in the Healthy Diet Basket used by the organisation to compute the cost and affordability of a healthy diet.
Despite progress, many individuals in lower-middle-income countries will continue to face challenges in accessing adequate nutrition, putting achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal of improved global nutrition by 2030 at risk, the report further stated. In low-income countries, the situation is more severe, with average daily per capita intake of nutrient-rich animal foods expected to remain at 143 calories, just below half the level identified in the Healthy Diet Basket. "This enduring nutritional gap highlights important structural barriers, including limited access to affordable protein-rich foods," the organisation said.
To support growing demand, global agricultural and fish production is projected to expand by 14% in constant prices over the next decade, with middle-income countries expected to remain the principal sources of global agricultural expansion, as per the report. These structural shifts in production will be driven by a combination of gradual adoption of innovative and improved technologies, capital investments, and more intensive use of fertilisers, feeds, and other inputs in middle-income countries.
As the projected production growth in the livestock and crop sectors is not fully offset by the assumed improvement in productivity, direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise 6% by 2034, as per the report. The relationship between agricultural growth and emissions will continue to evolve depending on the adoption of more efficient production methods and changing patterns of land use and input utilisation. However, with the expected productivity improvement, the organisation expects the carbon intensity of agricultural production to decline across all regions over the coming decade.
A scenario analysis mentioned in the report has suggested that by 2034 under-nourishment could be eliminated and direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions could be lowered by 7% from current levels. "Achieving these outcomes simultaneously would hinge on a 10% increase in food production and a 15% improvement in agricultural productivity, supported by the widespread adoption of currently available emissions-reducing technologies," it said.
The report highlights that trade flows between net-exporting and net-importing regions are expected to increase as agricultural production and consumption become more geographically separated based on different comparative advantages and production capacities as well as food and feed demand developments. As a result, international trade will remain indispensable to the global agri-food sector, according to the report. By 2034, 22% of calories consumed globally are expected to be traded across borders, the report stated. End
Reported by Pallavi Singhal
Edited by Nishant Maher
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