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Informist, Friday, Jul. 11, 2025

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD – The Energy sector companies, comprising oil, gas, renewables, electricity and coal producing companies, are expected to deliver a fall in revenue during the Apr-Jun quarter of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar).

 

The sector continues to navigate through mixed macroeconomic signals within the country, global uncertainty on tariffs by US government, fluctuating oil and gas prices basis severity of geopolitical frictions between Russia and Ukraine, US and Iran or rift within Israel. The indications are that the earnings trajectory of the energy companies would continue to depend on these factors for the remaining part of the financial year and June quarter was no different.

 

The 16 energy sector companies in the Nifty 200 index, for which estimates are available, are expected to see an estimated 4.8% on-year fall in its revenue but the cumulative net profit of these companies is likely to witness a sharp jump of 25% during June quarter. 

 

Among the energy companies, Reliance Industries Ltd. stands out the tallest in terms of its performance, supported by its diversified earnings base and advantage of scale. The private sector oil-to-telecom-to-retail behemoth Reliance Industries Ltd. is expected to report a steady earnings growth during the June quarter, aided primarily by its diversified portfolio. As per the brokerage reports, while the refining margins of RIL may look moderate compared with the year-ago period, strong marketing margins and inventory-led gains will also see its earnings getting a boost. It is slated to see a strong growth in three of its major businesses: oil-to-chemicals, telecommunications, and retail. Its consolidated revenue is estimated to rise 2.77% on year to INR 2.38 trillion, while consolidated net profit is expected to rise 32.7% on year to nearly INR 201 billion.

 

OIL MARKETING COMPANIES

Despite expecting a year-on-year fall of 9.5% to 13.5% on year in revenue for oil marketing companies during the June quarter, analysts expect these companies to post a robust growth in their net profits. Among them, Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. is expected to clock a massive 1,271% on-year rise in its net profit, on the back of likely windfall in its marketing margins and a low base. Other two oil marketing majors--Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd.--are expected to post a 201% and 109% on-year growth in their net profit, respectively, riding on strong fuel margins and inventory gains.

 

UPSTREAM COMPANIES

Several brokerages said the lower realisations and volumes are expected to see upstream oil players--Oil & Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. and Oil India Ltd.--clock a double digit drop in both, revenue and net profit during the June quarter. The average of estimates by nine brokerages show that ONGC would see a fall of 10.24% on year fall in revenue to INR 316.55 billion and net profit fall of 10.15% at INR 80.31 billion. For Apr-Jun of FY25, the revenue for ONGC was at INR 352.66 billion and a net profit was at INR 89.38 billion. Similarly, Oil India is expected to see its revenue in June quarter fall 1.92% on year to INR 52.3 billion, from INR 53.32 billion, and its net profit by 10.94% to INR 13.07 billion, from INR 14.67 billion a year ago.

 

GAS UTILITIES

Looking at the muted demand due to shut down of several fertiliser companies in the country, the key natural gas consumers and with industrial customers switching to relatively cheaper alternative as propane, the June quarter is being considered as one with muted demand and weaker margins. The early monsoon and lack of demand for electricity, compared with last year, also saw lower consumption of natural gas in the country.

 

The biggest player that provides berthing to liquefied natural gas ships at its LNG terminals, houses regasification and storage facilities across the country – Petronet LNG Ltd. – saw it operating the Dahej terminal at a little less than 90?pacity in June quarter, down from over 100?pacity it operated in June last financial year. Petronet LNG is expected to record a 13% on-year fall in its revenue to INR 116.66 billion and a year-on-year fall of 24.33% in its net profit at INR 8.64 billion.

 

The country's biggest gas transmission company--GAIL India Ltd.--aided by its gas trading business and petrochemicals margins is expected to nullify much of the impact of fall in demand for natural gas in the June quarter. The analyst estimates show that the revenue of this natural gas transmission giant may rise 0.96%, its net profit may slump 27.66% on year to INR 19.71 billion, from INR 27.24 billion.

 

Meanwhile, Delhi-based city gas distributor Indraprastha gas could announce an 11.16% on-year rise in sales for the June quarter, riding high on increased prices and margins on compressed natural gas being consumed by vehicles and industry in the national capital region of Delhi. It is also expected to see a just 3.64?ll in its net profit, aided by increase in prices of CNG it had sought from its customers in Delhi.

 

POWER UTILITIES

If oil and gas companies are expected to clock strong profits despite sliding sales in June quarter, the power utility companies in the Nifty 200 index are expected to show a divergent trend. Led by a surge in capacity expansion, private players such as JSW Energy are expected to see a big bump in their earnings and state-owned NTPC Ltd. likely being weighed down by rise in costs. The demand for electricity in the June quarter too did not match up to high demand witnessed in the June quarter last year, courtesy early monsoons.

 

The biggest state-owned electricity producer--NTPC Ltd.--is expected to see a fall in its net profit by 2.28% on year to INR 44.08 billion and sales falling 3.83% year-on-year to INR 427.19 billion. The domestic coal supplier to most of the thermal power plants in the country--Coal India Ltd.--too is expected to be hit by a fall in demand due to cooler climate brought in by early rains. Coal India is expected to announce a weak showing for the June quarter, with revenue falling 4.48% on year and net profit falling 20.04%.

 

Meanwhile, the early monsoon has helped hydel power public sector entity NHPC Ltd., which is expected to see its sales in June quarter rise 17.43% and net profit jump 7.53% on year. The power transmission major Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd. is expected to record a steady growth in sales led by its growing network of cables. The analysts polled expect PowerGrid to see a low double digit growth in both, revenue as well as net profit in the June quarter.

 

Among the private power utility companies, JSW Energy is expected to show a stellar growth in June quarter, with brokerage estimates of a 82% jump in revenue and a 26% rise in its net profit, all led by expanding capacity. Tata Power, another key private power utility company, on other hand is expected to announce a modest 2.3% revenue growth and 8.6% net profit rise in the June quarter.

 

The pure play wind energy player--Suzlon Energy Ltd. – is expected to see a 62.90% rise in its net profit year-on-year and 57.22% on year rise in its sales, led by massive order book for its wind turbines.

 

End

 

Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %
Reliance Industries +	23,82,039	2,00,913	2.77	32.72
BPCL	10,17,843	63,055	-10.00	109.15
Hindustan Petroleum	9,81,507	48,800	-13.75	1,271.55
Indian Oil Corp	17,49,309	79,488	-9.47	200.73
Indraprastha Gas	39,137	3,868	11.16	-3.64
Oil India	52,296	13,064	-1.92	-10.94
ONGC	3,16,554	80,310	-10.24	-10.15
Petronet LNG	1,16,661	8,638	-13.04	-24.33
GAIL	3,39,974	19,705	0.96	-27.66
Coal India +	3,48,294	87,636	-4.48	-20.04
Tata Power +	1,76,988	10,545	2.34	8.61
JSW Energy +	52,439	6,576	82.11	26.03
Suzlon Energy +	32,841	4,753	62.90	57.22
NHPC	28,394	11,006	17.43	7.53
NTPC	4,27,193	44,081	-3.83	-2.28
Power Grid	1,12,149	37,581	11.39	10.14
Total	81,73,616	7,20,018	-4.81	25.17

 

Notes:

+Consolidated Figure

* Net Interest Income

Y-O-Y: Year-on-Year

#Net premium income

Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter

N.A.:Not Available

 

Estimates From: Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd, Antique Stock Broking Ltd, Centrum Broking Ltd, Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd, Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, HDFC Securities Ltd, HSBC Global Research, ICICI Securities Ltd, IIFL Capital Services Ltd, JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd, Kotak Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd, Nomura Equity Research, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd, Sharekhan Ltd, Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

Compiled by Shivaji Jagtap

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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