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Informist, Friday, Jul. 11, 2025

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

Rainfall activity was mostly limited over east, central, and northwest India this week, with many regions recording "excess" to "large excess" showers. Many parts of the southern peninsula and northeast India remained deficient in rainfall, with only the occasional passing heavy shower over a few pockets.

A low pressure area over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand moved west-northwestwards across Jharkhand and north Chhattisgarh during the week, while multiple cyclonic circulations and troughs formed over parts of central and northwest India.

The monsoon trough, as well as the track of most of the weather systems, has been largely limited over parts of east, central, and northwest India this week, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said. As such, flanks on either side of the track have witnessed poor rainfall. Additionally, many parts of the southern peninsula have also witnessed poor rainfall owing to the lack of an active weather system over the region.

The western coast of south India received heavy to very heavy rainfall during the week, but the interior and eastern coast of the region were left drier. Though regions such as Telangana witnessed some heavy rain, it was not enough to make up for the shortfall in the region. Similarly, in northeast India, Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura saw some heavy rainfall, but other regions such as Assam and Meghalaya only recorded light to moderate rain.

In the week ended Wednesday, rainfall was 13% below the long-period average in south peninsular India at 37.1 millimetres, the India Meteorological Department said. In east and northeast India, rainfall was 25% below the average at 73.3 millimetres.

Parts of east and central India such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and Odisha saw continuous heavy rainfall over the week, with multiple red alerts and orange alerts issued for heavy to very heavy rainfall, with occasional extremely heavy showers. In central India, rainfall was 87% above average at 125.6 millimetres during the week ended Wednesday, data from the weather department showed. Rainfall was 5% above the long-period average in northwest India at 40.7 millimetres.

In the coming week, northeast India may witness some relief from the dry spell, as heavy rainfall is likely over several parts, according to the weather department. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to continue over most parts of east, central, and northwest India. Heavy rainfall is seen over parts of west India as well. Rainfall is expected to remain deficit in the southern peninsula, with heavy rainfall only likely over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

Following is the weekly all-India rainfall since the beginning of the southwest monsoon season (in millimetres):

The following table gives homogeneous region-wise rainfall during Jun. 1-Jul. 11 in the country (in millimetres): 

MONSOON PROGRESS

This year, the southwest monsoon hit the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal date of Jun. 1, and by May 29 the monsoon current covered southern and northeast India entirely, and parts of east and central India. However, after May 29, the monsoon was in a weak phase and resumed advancing only on Jun. 16. So far, the monsoon current has covered most parts of the country, except some parts of Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. Normally, beginning Jun. 1, the southwest monsoon advances northwards and covers the entire country around Jul. 8. The withdrawal of the monsoon starts around Sept. 17, and it withdraws from the entire country around Oct. 15. 

ONSET CRITERIA

At present, the department uses criteria that was adopted in 2016 for declaring the onset of the monsoon over Kerala, which is based on the daily rainfall at 14 stations in Kerala and the neighbouring area, along with wind-field and outgoing long-wave radiation over the southeast Arabian Sea.

If, after May 10, 60% of the 14 designated stations--Minicoy and Amini in Lakshadweep, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, and Kannur in Kerala, and Kudulu and Mangalore in Karnataka--report rainfall of 2.5 millimetres or more for two consecutive days, the onset over Kerala will be declared on the second day, provided the wind-field and outgoing long-wave radiation conditions are met.

The outgoing long-wave radiation measures the amount of terrestrial radiation released into space and, by extension, the amount of cloud cover and water vapour that intercepts that radiation in the atmosphere.

The criteria emphasise the sharp increase in rainfall over Kerala along with the setting up of large-scale monsoon flow and extension of westerlies up to 600 hectopascal. 

However, the department declares the monsoon onset or progress dates for other regions operationally in a subjective manner, considering the sharp increase in rainfall and its characteristic sustenance for a few days and associated changes in the atmospheric circulation features.

LONG-RANGE FORECAST

The meteorological department has projected the southwest monsoon to be above normal at over 106% of the long-period average of 870 millimetres, which is based on historical data from 1971 to 2020. The forecast assumes a modelling error of plus or minus 4%, according to the second-stage long-range forecast for the Jun-Sept southwest monsoon season. The department had earlier predicted rainfall for Jun-Sept at 105% of the long-period average with a modelling error of plus or minus 5%.

The agency said that on average it expects above-normal rainfall over most parts of the country this year except for northeast India, where rainfall is expected to be lower than normal. Central and south peninsular India are expected to receive above-normal rainfall at 106% of the long-period average, while rainfall over the northwestern parts of the country is likely to be normal at 92-108% of the long-period average.

For July, the weather department has forecast above-normal rainfall for the country at over 106% of the long-period average. The weather bureau sees most parts of northeast and east India as well as many areas of extreme south peninsular India and some areas of northwest India receiving below-normal rainfall.

Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are neutral currently, the department said. Its model forecasts a possible transition from neutral to negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions in the coming months. However, the shift may be brief, and the Indian Ocean Dipole could move back to neutral conditions soon after.

The current weather systems indicate a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation, showing that there is no probability of either El Nino or La Nina weather phenomenon, at least till the end of the monsoon. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino, which means Little Boy in Spanish, is a climate pattern marked by an unusual warming of the surface waters in the Pacific, leading to drier, hotter weather in India. La Nina, which means Little Girl in Spanish, is the opposite of El Nino. It is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is associated with colder sea surface temperatures. La Nina is usually associated with good rains in India. 

The department's long-range forecasts are as follows:

Private forecaster Skymet has predicted a 'normal' southwest monsoon at 103% of the long-period average with an error margin of plus or minus 5%. The agency had predicted a weak start to the monsoon this year but expects the rainfall to increase from July. It does not see any chance of the occurrence of El Nino.

PRE-MONSOON RAINFALL

While the monsoon arrived on May 24, the weather department said rainfall during May would not be factored into the southwest monsoon. The country received above-normal rainfall during the pre-monsoon period in Mar-May. India received 185.8 millimetres of rainfall during Mar-May, 42% above the normal for the period. Last year, it received 108.7 millimetres rainfall during Mar-May, 8.1% below the normal for the period.

RECAP 2024
The country received 934.8 millimetres of rainfall in Jun-Sept last year, which was 108% of the long-period average. The monsoon hit the Kerala coast on May 30, two days ahead of the scheduled date, and covered the entire country by Jul. 2, six days ahead of the normal date of Jul. 8. The weather bureau's forecast for the monsoon onset over Kerala last year was May 31 and predicted rainfall during Jun-Sept 920.7 millimetres, or 96% of the long-period average.     

Overall, monsoon rainfall was above normal for the season and the spatial distribution was uniform. The rainfall in June was below-normal at 89% of the long-period average. However, the country received above-normal showers during the rest of the southwest monsoon period. Rainfall was 109% of the long-period average in July, 115% in August, and 112% in September.

Rainfall during the season was 107% of the long-period average in northwest India, 119% in central India, 86% in east and northeast India, and 114% in the southern peninsula. Of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, two subdivisions received large excess, 10 received excess, and 21 recorded normal rainfall. Three subdivisions received deficient rainfall during Jun-Sept last year – Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh.

RESERVOIR LEVELS

The water level in 161 key reservoirs rose sharply over 89% on year to 78.381 billion cubic metres as of Jul. 3, according to data from the Central Water Commission. The water level rose 18% from the previous week's level of 66.449 billion cubic metres, the data showed. According to data collated by Informist, the current water level in key reservoirs is at a six-year high. The water level as of Thursday was 75.23% above the 10-year average for this period. The current water level is 42.96% of the total live storage capacity of 182.444 billion cubic metres.

Of the 161 reservoirs, five were at full capacity, up from three a week ago, data from the Central Water Commission showed. The number of reservoirs with water levels of up to 40% only fell to 61 from 77 in the previous week.

In the northern region, the water level in reservoirs was 7.393 billion cubic metres, which is 37.27% of the total live storage capacity. This was higher than 27.35% held by the reservoirs in the same period a year ago. The water level in reservoirs in the eastern region stood at 8.447 billion cubic metres, or 38.88% of the total live storage capacity, higher than 22.54% last year. 

In the western region, water level stood at 16.693 billion cubic metres as of Thursday. The water level was 44.69% of the total live storage capacity, compared with 21.70% a year ago. Reservoirs in the central region held 16.115 billion cubic metres, or 33.17% of the total live storage capacity of 28 reservoirs in the region, up from 25.41% a year ago. 

The water level in the reservoirs in the southern region was 29.734 billion cubic metres, which is also a six-year high. As of Thursday, the water level was 54.12% of the total live storage capacity of the 45 reservoirs in the region. At this time last year, the water level was just 19.39% of the total live storage capacity.

The current live storage capacity of these 161 reservoirs is 182.444 billion cubic metres. Water in these reservoirs, which is used for irrigation and generating electricity, is replenished during the monsoon season.

SOWING

Above-normal rainfall has aided the progression of kharif acreage across the country. The area sown with kharif crops rose to 43.75 million hectares as of Friday, up more than 11% on year from 39.38 million hectares sown in the same period last year, according to data from the agriculture ministry. The acreage under pulses rose significantly, driven by a jump in moong acreage, while the acreage of coarse cereals also rose due to a sharp increase in bajra acreage, the data showed.

The area under paddy was up more than 7% at 6.93 million hectares as of Friday. The area under coarse cereals rose to 7.72 million hectares, up 21% on year from 6.38 million hectares a year ago. The area under maize dipped slightly to 3.94 million hectares from 4.02 million hectares sown a year ago, the data showed.

The total area under all pulses so far is up more than 35% on year at 4.26 million hectares, according to the data. Moong acreage jumped more than 146% on year to 1.66 million hectares from 673,000 hectares last year. However, the area under tur fell to 1.65 million hectares from 1.85 million hectares sown a year ago.

The area under all oilseeds rose 14% on year to 10.83 million hectares, the data showed. Acreage of groundnut was at 2.67 million hectares, up from 1.77 million hectares sown last year, while that of soybean also rose to 7.90 million hectares from 7.55 million hectares a year ago.

Sugarcane acreage so far stands at 5.52 million hectares against 5.49 million hectares sown by the same time last year. The area under cotton also rose slightly to 7.95 million hectares from 7.86 million hectares a year ago, according to the data.

TERMS

LARGE EXCESS: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is 60% or more 

EXCESS: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is 20-59% 

NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is -19% to +19%

DEFICIENT: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is (-)59-20%

LARGE DEFICIENT: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is (-)99-60%

NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall is within +/-10% of the long period average

BELOW NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall is <10% of the long period average

ABOVE NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall is within >10% of the long period average

EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL: Rainfall realised in a day is a value near about the highest recorded rainfall at or near the station for the month or season. However, this term will be used only when the actual rainfall amount exceeds 120 mm. 

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is >/= 244.5 mm

VERY HEAVY RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is 124.5-244.4 mm

HEAVY RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is 64.5-124.4 mm

MODERATE RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is 7.6-35.5 mm 

RED ALERT: Very heavy rainfall of over 204.4 mm in 24 hours

ORANGE ALERT: Heavy rainfall of 115.6-204.4 mm in 24 hours 

YELLOW ALERT: Warning to be aware of worsening weather conditions that could disrupt daily life

End

Internet links:
India Meteorological Department - www.imd.gov.in
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting - www.ncmrwf.gov.in
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology - www.tropmet.res.in.  

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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