Informist Poll
June WPI inflation seen rising to 0.7% from 0.4% in May
This story was originally published at 16:49 IST on 10 July 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI - India's wholesale inflation is expected to have risen to 0.7% in June from 0.39% in the previous month, according to an Informist poll of 10 economists. WPI inflation was 3.43% in June 2024. The economists' estimates for June WPI inflation ranged from 0.4% to 0.8%. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for June at 1200 IST on Monday.
WPI inflation is likely to have risen in June because of higher commodity prices during the month, economists said. Crude oil and metal prices rose in June. "However, the uptick in crude oil prices has been largely transient, with geopolitical tensions easing," said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.
Core WPI inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items--likely rose last month, with Nirmal Bang's John projecting June core WPI inflation at 1.7%. Core WPI inflation was at a five-month low of 0.9% in May.
WPI food inflation likely eased in June to 0.6% from 1.72% in May, according to economists at Union Bank of India. Sequentially, however, the WPI food index likely rose in June because of higher vegetable prices. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale tomato prices increased 41% month-on-month in June, while potato prices rose 4% from May. Wholesale prices of some edible oils also increased in June from a month ago.
WPI inflation of 0.7% in June would translate to a 0.6% month-on-month rise in the all commodities index. At 0.6%, the sequential rise in the all commodities index would be the highest in eight months. Typically, the all commodities index rises sequentially during the summer months mainly because of rise in vegetable prices. On an average, the headline index has risen 0.5% on month in June in the last 13 years.
"Y/y (year-on-year) Fuel WPI likely continued the slide for the 11th month in line in June '25 partly due to fall in mineral oils segment and mainly due to high base effect (2.27% in June '24) even as crude oil prices were up by around 10% m/m (month-on-month) in June," Union Bank of India said in a report.
Even as WPI inflation is seen rising in June, it is likely to stay well below its retail counterpart. According to an Informist poll, June CPI inflation is seen falling to 2.3%, the lowest since January 2019. CPI data for June will be released at 1600 IST on Monday.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in June:
| ORGANISATION | WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | 0.42% |
| YES Bank | 0.42% |
| India Ratings and Research | 0.5% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 0.5% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | 0.6% |
| Capital Economics | 0.7% |
| ICICI Bank | 0.76% |
| CareEdge Ratings | 0.8% |
| ICRA | 0.8% |
| Union Bank of India | 0.8% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
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