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Informist, Thursday, Jul. 10, 2025

 

By Anshul Choudhary

 

MUMBAI – The companies constituting the benchmark Nifty 50 index are collectively expected to report dismal growth numbers for the June quarter but for Reliance Industries Ltd. The 45 index constituents for which earnings estimates are available are likely to report a 3.2% rise in net profit for the quarter, but this growth drops to a mere 0.5% without Reliance Industries, according to an Informist poll of 20 brokerages.

 

Reliance Industries is expected to report a 33% rise in consolidated net profit on strong growth in three of its major businesses: oil-to-chemicals, telecommunications, and retail. However, the consolidated revenue growth of the company is expected to be only 3%.

 

Of the 45 companies, as many as 14 are expected to report year-on-year fall in net profit for the June quarter. Only 31 companies will report an increase in profit this quarter and only 16 of these will report a profit growth of more than 10%.

 

Apart from Reliance Industries, only five other companies are likely to see a net profit growth of more than 30%.

Excluding these six companies, the cumulative net profit of the remaining 39 companies for the quarter is expected to fall 2.8% on year.

 

On the other hand, a drop of over 40% in the net profit of Tata Motors and Kotak Mahindra Bank for the June quarter is expected to limit the profit growth of the index companies. The sharp fall in Kotak Bank's net profit is on a high base of last year, when it had recorded a one-time income of over INR 35 billion.

 

Only three other companies are likely to see their net profit drop more than 10%. Excluding these five companies, the net profit growth of the remaining 40 companies in the Nifty 50 index is expected to rise nearly 10% in the June quarter.

 

Overall, however, the earnings growth remains poor and the 3% rise in cumulative net profit of the 45 companies for the June quarter will be only slightly better than the decline of nearly 1% reported for the March quarter, and significantly lower than the 8% rise in the June quarter last year. Demand in major sectors continues to be weak and further expansion in margins seems unlikely, brokerages said in their earnings preview reports.

 

Weak earnings growth in the past few quarters has pushed brokerages to cut their earnings estimates even for the top companies. Motilal Oswal Financial Services has cut its earnings per share estimate for the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) for the Nifty 50 companies at least three times already in 2025. Motilal Oswal, JM Financial Institutional Equities, and Kotak Institutional Equities have all cut their estimates for FY26 Nifty 50 earnings per share by 7-8% so far in 2025. Currently, they see FY26 earnings per share at INR 1,204-INR 1,226, a growth of 8-11% over FY25.

 

The cumulative sales growth of the 45 companies in the Nifty 50 is expected to weaken to 2.6% on year in the June quarter. The sales growth of Nifty 50 companies was over 6% in the March quarter and 8% in the June quarter last year.

 

Sequentially, too, the performance of these companies is expected to be worse in the June quarter. These 45 companies are expected to report a 6.7% quarter-on-quarter fall in revenue and 7.5?ll in net profit. "The top-line slowdown is now being led by weakness in volume growth and becoming quite broad-based," Nuvama Institutional Equities said in its preview report Monday.

 

No earnings estimates are available for Bajaj Finserv, Jio Financial Services, and Adani Enterprises. HDFC Life Insurance Co. and SBI Life Insurance Co. are not part of this analysis as the analysts' estimates for these two insurers are only for annual premium equivalent.

 

Consumption during the June quarter was mixed with the early onset of the monsoon likely to have impacted demand for beverages and white goods such as refrigerators and air conditioners. The benefit of lower inflation and the personal income tax relief announced in the Budget are unlikely to have been visible in this quarter. However, demand in rural areas is expected to be better as rural wages have increased in the past few months.

 

A slowdown in credit growth has been a major cause of concern for analysts for several quarters now as a large part of consumption is fuelled by credit. Scheduled banks' credit growth was 11% in FY25 as compared to over 19% in FY24. Credit growth fell further to 9.6% on year for the fortnight ended Jun. 13, according to latest data from the Reserve Bank of India.

 

SECTORAL WEAKNESSES

There is no major support for profit growth of the Nifty 50 universe from the financial sector of the kind seen in the past few quarters, when banks enjoyed high interest margins. With the RBI cutting its benchmark repo rate by as much as 100 basis points to 5.50%, margins of the banking sector have also started coming down. "...for large private banks (barring IndusInd Bank), we expect double-digit decline in NIM (net interest margin)," Antique Stock Broking said. The six banks in the Nifty 50 index are expected to report a decline of 5% in cumulative net profit for the June quarter.

 

Apart from lower interest rates, banks have faced another problem during the quarter. They have seen a slowdown in credit growth amid weak demand for corporate loans and tighter rules that have affected unsecured lending. While weak private capital expenditure amid US tariff uncertainty has hit demand for corporate loans, poor demand for automobiles and white goods have affected retail loans. Owing to this, the cumulative net interest income of six banks' is expected to rise only 3% on year.

 

While slower credit growth remains an issue for banks, weak consumption is affecting other parts of the economy. Major automobile companies such as Tata Motors and Hero MotoCorp are set to report a decline in revenue. Data from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations showed total retail vehicle sales volume rose only 4% on year during the June quarter.

 

Owing to weak volume growth and higher discounts, the cumulative revenue of six automobile companies is expected to fall 9% on year. The drop in their net profit is likely to be steeper at 14%. Weak sales of passenger vehicles, which has forced companies to increase discounts, is largely responsible for the dismal performance.

 

"The Indian PV (passenger vehicle) market faces challenges from rising inventory levels, with production outpacing slowing domestic sales, leading to a significant build-up of 52-53 days of sales inventory, compared to the typical 30-35 days," Systematix Shares and Stocks said in a report Tuesday.

 

Among other areas of consumption, demand for fast-moving consumer goods has not picked up significantly in the June quarter. The four FMCG companies in the Nifty 50 index are likely to report a 5% rise in their cumulative sales and only a 1% rise in their net profit. "Demand in urban markets remains muted while the rural markets witnessed a marginal improvement," Antique Stock Broking said of the FMCG sector in its report. "Volume growth is expected to remain muted at low single-digit; however, revenue growth would witness improvement on a sequential basis due to price hikes."

 

Information technology continued to report weak growth numbers amid US tariffs affecting discretionary demand in the US. Analysts are concerned that tariff threats have pushed clients to delay their orders, which has hit Indian IT companies. Moreover, this is not expected to change anytime soon.

 

The five IT companies in the benchmark index are expected to report 4% year-on-year rise in cumulative net profit and sales. Sequentially, sales growth is expected to be flat, while net profit is likely to decline 2%.

 

Among the 45 companies in the Nifty 50 for which analyst estimates are available, 14 are expected to report year-on-year fall in net profit for the quarter. Within these, IndusInd Bank's net profit is expected to fall 70% on year and the net profit of Tata Motors, Kotak Bank, and Eternal may decline 40-60%.

 

SOME POSITIVES

While earnings of energy-related companies are expected to be mixed, index heavyweight Reliance Industries is likely to be a standout performer with a 33% rise in consolidated net profit despite a mere 3% revenue growth.

 

Some of the other major companies that are likely to report strong growth in net profit are Bharti Airtel, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, and Titan Co. These companies are likely to report net profit growth of 20-62%.

 

Metal companies' profits are expected to rise sharply as steel product prices have improved after the government imposed 12% safeguard duty in March. The cumulative net profit of three metal companies in the index is estimated to grow 47% on year. However, sales growth is likely to be flat because of weak volumes, partly due to a fall in output on account of maintenance works by JSW Steel and Tata Steel. The four pharmaceutical companies in the index are expected to report an 18% rise in cumulative net profit, while their sales are expected to grow 8%.

 

Following are the Apr-Jun consensus earnings estimates of companies that constitute the National Stock Exchange's Nifty 50 index:

 

Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
AUTO
Bajaj Auto	122,710	20,218	2.88	1.68	1.01	(1.34)	24,491	Aug. 6	6
Eicher Motors +	49,835	11,297	13.44	2.56	(4.92)	(17.07)	11,988	--	6
Hero MotoCorp	98,146	10,609	(3.24)	(5.50)	(1.25)	(1.86)	13,744	--	6
M&M	338,034	31,441	24.59	20.34	6.94	29.01	48,769	--	6
Maruti Suzuki	363,858	32,058	2.40	(12.17)	(10.54)	(13.62)	38,667	--	6
Tata Motors +	827,322	31,966	(23.43)	(42.57)	(30.77)	(62.26)	85,501	--	5
Total	1,799,905	137,588	(8.72)	(14.23)	(17.86)	(28.00)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
BANK
AXIS Bank *	137,881	63,132	2.53	4.62	(0.16)	(11.30)	N.A.	Jul. 17	12
HDFC Bank *	316,198	167,655	5.97	3.65	(1.39)	(4.83)	N.A.	Jul. 19	11
ICICI Bank *	211,092	118,370	7.96	7.03	(0.40)	(6.28)	N.A.	Jul. 19	11
IndusInd Bank*	43,355	6,544	(19.83)	(69.59)	42.23	N.A.	N.A.	--	10
Kotak Mahindra *	73,574	34,417	7.53	(44.93)	1.01	(3.10)	N.A.	Jul. 26	11
SBI *	419,069	169,046	1.90	(0.77)	(2.03)	(9.32)	N.A.	--	11
Total	1,201,169	559,165	3.36	(4.75)	(0.05)	(2.45)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
CAPITAL GOODS
Bharat Electronics	47,830	9,072	13.91	16.88	(47.55)	(56.90)	11,335	Jul. 28	5
L&T +	628,457	33,885	14.02	21.64	(15.52)	(38.36)	63,517	--	4
Total	676,287	42,957	14.01	20.60	(19.02)	(43.49)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
CEMENT
UltraTech Cement +	214,906	21,608	18.93	27.36	(6.82)	(12.94)	43,818	Jul. 21	5
Total	214,906	21,608	18.93	27.36	(6.82)	(12.94)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
CHEMICAL
Asian Paints +	89,797	10,556	0.11	(9.77)	7.43	52.52	16,308	Jul. 29	9
Grasim Industries	90,339	(2,484)	31.04	N.A.	1.21	N.A.	2,445	--	5
Total	180,136	8,072	13.55	(27.79)	4.22	99.74
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
FINANCE
Bajaj Finance +*	103,123	47,156	23.27	20.54	5.15	5.27	N.A.	Jul. 24	3
Bajaj Finserv +	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	Jul. 25	--
HDFC Life Insurance Co#	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	Jul. 15	--
Jio Financial Services *+	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	--	--
SBI Life Insurance Co#	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	--	--
Shriram Finance*	58,372	21,644	11.53	9.28	4.88	1.17	N.A.	--	6
Total	161,496	68,800	18.75	16.76	5.05	3.94
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
FMCG
Hindustan Unilever	159,411	25,490	3.93	0.43	4.78	2.25	36,021	--	10
ITC	177,987	49,791	4.70	1.25	3.19	2.14	62,820	--	11
Nestle India	51,009	7,393	5.96	(0.98)	(7.32)	(16.51)	11,717	Jul. 24	11
Tata Consumer Products +	48,462	3,384	11.35	16.57	5.16	(1.87)	6,227	--	8
Total	436,868	86,058	5.26	1.34	2.61	0.09
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
IT
HCL Tech +	303,283	42,351	8.10	(0.51)	0.27	(1.67)	62,894	Jul. 14	14
Infosys +	418,366	67,584	6.41	6.13	2.23	(3.90)	100,752	Jul. 23	14
TCS +	646,502	121,790	3.25	1.15	0.27	(0.37)	172,265	Jul. 10	14
Tech Mahindra +	133,830	12,084	2.90	41.92	(0.01)	3.57	19,480	Jul. 16	14
Wipro +	220,409	32,556	0.35	8.41	(2.06)	(8.80)	44,331	Jul. 17	14
Total	1,722,389	276,365	4.42	4.21	0.41	(2.35)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
JEWELLERY
Titan Co	141,378	9,246	17.30	20.07	4.90	6.27	14,945	--	8
Total	141,378	9,246	17.30	20.07	4.90	6.27
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
METAL & MINING
Hindalco Industries +	598,678	35,942	5.01	16.92	(7.74)	(31.97)	73,849	Aug. 12	5
JSW Steel +	430,347	19,290	0.21	128.29	(3.98)	28.34	72,557	Jul. 18	7
Tata Steel +	517,065	16,470	(5.60)	71.63	(8.03)	26.61	70,947	--	6
Total	1,546,090	71,703	(0.08)	46.97	(6.82)	(11.33)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
OIL & GAS
ONGC	316,554	80,310	(10.24)	(10.15)	(9.51)	24.54	172,950	--	9
Reliance Ind +	2,382,039	200,913	2.77	32.72	(8.87)	3.53	450,806	--	8
Total	2,698,593	281,223	1.05	16.81	(8.95)	8.77
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
PHARMA, Healthcare
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise +	57,128	3,687	12.33	20.81	2.16	(5.36)	7,891	--	4
Cipla +	70,317	12,000	5.05	1.90	4.49	(1.79)	17,104	Jul. 25	7
Dr. Reddy's Lab +	85,174	14,869	10.67	85.56	(0.13)	(6.68)	22,102	Jul. 23	6
Sun Pharma +	135,397	29,641	7.01	4.53	4.48	37.87	37,162	--	7
Total	348,016	60,197	8.32	17.58	2.94	12.42
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
POWER
Adani Enterprises +	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	--	--
Coal India +	348,294	87,636	(4.48)	(20.04)	(7.92)	(8.75)	112,178	--	4
NTPC	427,193	44,081	(3.83)	(2.28)	(2.70)	(23.71)	121,385	--	3
Power Grid	112,149	37,581	11.39	10.14	2.12	(13.33)	96,102	--	2
Total	887,635	169,298	(2.41)	(10.34)	(4.26)	(14.14)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
PORTS
Adani Ports and SEZ +	86,879	29,662	14.93	(4.71)	2.35	(1.59)	58,596	--	4
Total	86,879	29,662	14.93	(4.71)	2.35	(1.59)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
RETAIL
Trent	49,720	3,796	24.56	10.95	21.09	8.48	7,367	--	5
Total	49,720	3,796	24.56	10.95	21.09	8.48
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
SERVICES
Eternal +	51,418	1,036	22.25	(59.07)	(11.85)	165.51	1,879	--	4
Total	51,418	1,036	22.25	(59.07)	(11.85)	165.51
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
TELECOM
Bharti Airtel +	491,595	67,428	27.67	62.09	2.68	(38.82)	276,178	--	7
Total	491,595	67,428	27.67	62.09	2.68	(38.82)
Nifty Total	12,694,480	1,894,200	2.55	3.16	(6.74)	(7.49)

 

 

Notes:

+ Consolidated Figure

* Net interest Income

Y-o-Y: Year-on-Year

# Net premium income

Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter

N.A.: Not Available

 

Estimates from:

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd., Antique Stock Broking Ltd., Centrum Broking Ltd., Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd., Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd., Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., HDFC Securities Ltd., HSBC Global Research, ICICI Securities Ltd., IIFL Capital Services Ltd., JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd., Kotak Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd., Nomura Equity Research, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd., Sharekhan Ltd., Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

End

 

Compiled by Shivaji Jagatap

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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