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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 9, 2025

By Gopika Balasubramanium

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices are likely to move in a range Thursday, largely in line with the trend over the past six sessions, analysts said. Focus will be on Tata Consultancy Services, which is scheduled to report its March quarter earnings on Thursday. Analysts see TCS' earnings to be a determinant of the market direction for the remaining two trading sessions of the week.

Technical Analyst Jatin Gedia of Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects the Nifty 50 to move in a thin range between 25300 points and 25600 points. Mirroring similar views, Rajesh Bhosale, technical analyst at Angel One, said in a note that a meaningul breakout of 25300 points on the lower side and 25600 points on the higher side. 

"It appears that markets are in a wait-and-watch mode, seeking clarity from US trade tariff developments and the start of the corporate earnings season, particularly from heavyweight names," Bhosale of Angel One said in a note. "These events are expected to act as key directional triggers. Until then, traders are advised to stay vigilant, monitor the defined range closely, and use the above-mentioned levels to plan their trades with a disciplined approach."

On Wednesdauy, The Nifty 50 closed at 25476.10 points, down 46.40 points or 0.2%. The BSE Sensex closed at 83536.08 points, down 176.43 points or 0.2%. 

Major developments regarding the India-US trade deal will also be keenly watched by the market participants. At present, there is a lack of clarity on what US president intends for India, on one hand he has been telling he is closing the deal with India soon, on the other hand he decides to levy 10% tariff on the BRICS countries, in which India is also a member. Analysts said market has already factored in the tariff event and said even if there is a negative surprise in a worst case scenario, the downside is limited.

Earlier in the day, Emkay Global Financial Services said in a note that it believed the valuation comfort in the Nifty 50 has eroded in the short term and expects it to be flat until signs of monetary transmission and growth revival emerge. The Nifty 50 constituents, excluding financial services, will likely report a mere 0.3% on-year rise in their cumulative topline, resulting in a weak net profit growth of 2.3%.

Despite the likely weak June quarter earnings of major Nifty 50 companies, Emkay sees "little risk" to the longer-term earnings outlook. The brokerage maintains the Nifty 50's target of 26,000 for FY26. The brokerage is also optimistic that the earnings per share for FY26 has some upside potential stemming from the monetary stimulus and weak commodity prices.  

Focus will be on the information technology stocks Thursday, as TCS will detail its financial statement for the quarter ended June. Analysts expect the IT giant to report a rather mute earnings for Apr-Jun. The Mumbai-based company's consolidated net profit is expected to decline 1% sequentially to INR 120.97 billion, according to the average of estimates by nine brokering firms. This would mean a paltry 0.5% rise from a year ago. TCS' consolidated revenue is likely to be unchanged sequentially at INR 644.99 billion, but indicates a 3% on-year rise, as per the average of estimates. Gedia of Share Khan expect shares of TCS to move between INR 3,350 and INR 3,550. Commentaries from the company's management on macroeconomic situation in the US, Trump's tariffs, revenue conversion from deal wins, and outlook for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) will be monitored.  End

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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