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Informist, Monday, Jul. 7, 2025

By Akash Mandal

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are likely to consolidate Tuesday, but some analysts expect the indices "to make a big move" within the next 2-3 sessions. Investors will keep monitoring any news regarding the US tariffs, with US President Donald Trump's fickle stand on tariffs causing uncertainty in the market. On Tuesday, the Nifty 50 is expected to move in a range of 25200-25650 points.

"I feel a decisive move will come in the benchmarks in the next 2-3 sessions. The move will most likely be a positive one," Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president for technical research at Religare Broking, said. "The index (Nifty 50) has been rangebound for a week or so now...it still looks strong since correction over the past few sessions is not decisive and instead looks time-wise," Mishra said. He feels after the big move, the next significant trigger will be the June quarter corporate earnings.

On Monday, the Nifty 50 closed flat at 25461.30 points. The BSE Sensex closed at 83442.50 points, up 9.6 points. Oil marketing companies rose as crude oil prices fell. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries, which ended nearly 1% higher, supported an otherwise weak market. Fast moving consumer goods stocks also surged during the session after many major companies in the sector reported solid provisional numbers for Apr-Jun and some even said there were green shoots of demand recovery during the quarter. The Nifty FMCG closed nearly 2% higher at 55652.85 points.

Mishra of Religare Broking, however, does not believe that the index will continue to rise. "FMCG still looks sideways (on a technical basis)...over the past couple of weeks, all sectors except FMCG have participated in sector rotation by investors," he said. "It might be good time to enter and buy select FMCG stocks, but overall sector will only rise when the Nifty FMCG crosses 56000 points," Mishra said. The sectoral index has risen for the third straight session now, having fallen for four straight sessions before that.

Investors will also eye further trade deals and negotiations between the US and its allies, with some analysts saying that an interim trade deal between the US and India is expected within the next couple of days. Though the trade deal has widely been expected for some time now, it might be a trigger for the market due to lack of other triggers, analysts said.

Investors will also shift their focus to corporate earnings, with Tata Consultancy Services set to report its June quarter numbers on Thursday. Most analysts believe that earnings for the quarter will be better than the previous one, but will still won't be anywhere near the mid-twenties top line growth Indian companies used to report at their peak a few years ago.

"We perceive 1QFY26 as the 'Crossover quarter,' which should mark the crossing-over from a subdued low-single-digit earnings growth of FY25 towards a more sustainable double-digit earnings growth over the four subsequent quarters," Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a strategy report. "Bottom-up aggregates of our analyst estimates suggest a 10%/5% YoY growth in 1QFY26 MOFSL/Nifty earnings (companies in Motilal Oswal's coverage)...For the remainder of FY26, the bottom-up aggregate of our analyst estimates suggests a 6%/13%/16% YoY growth in NIFTY PAT," the brokerage said.  End

Edited by Ashish Shirke

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