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Informist, Thursday, Jul. 3, 2025

NEW DELHI - Global liquefied natural gas prices are expected to remain firm in 2025 but are likely to ease 2026 onwards, driven by a significant rise in supply from the US and Qatar, Ayush Agarwal, analyst at S&P Global, said at a New Delhi market briefing. Prices are seen firm this year due to strong demand from Europe and limited supply.

Despite the build-up in production capacity, the near-term supply outlook remains tight. Agarwal expects most of the incremental LNG supply in 2025--around 32 million tonnes--to be absorbed by Europe and Egypt.

But the supply situation is expected to improve in the coming years. "The market is not as tightly balanced as it was two or three years ago," Agarwal said. "We now have new (sources of) supply from projects."

India's LNG demand, which surged in 2024, has already seen a slowdown this year. "In May and June last year, average imports were 120 million cubic metres per day. Right now, it is an average of 100 million cubic metres per day only for May and June, down 20% already," he said.

Higher global prices and subdued demand from the Indian power sector have led to demand for LNG in the country easing. "We don't expect a strong recovery in India's (LNG imports) in 2025 compared to 2024," he added.

During the winter, Agarwal expects global LNG prices to be around $14 per million British thermal units. However, with supply additions beginning from 2026, prices are likely to ease. "From the summer of 2026, we expect (LNG) prices to again ease and be in a range of $10 per mBtu."

By 2030, global LNG supply is projected to exceed 600 million tonnes from 400 million tonnes in 2024. "This build-up in supply is so huge that it will help in easing the market from 2026 onwards," Agarwal said.  End

Reported by Afra Abubacker and Pallavi Singhal

Edited by Nishant Maher

$1 = INR 85.31

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