Oil Outlook
S&P's Das sees global crude oil demand peaking this decade, falling thereafter
This story was originally published at 15:30 IST on 3 July 2025
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NEW DELHI – The global crude oil market is expected to witness a significant shift in the coming years, with demand projected to peak by the end of this decade and then start declining, Premasish Das, executive director for oil markets research and analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said at a global S&P conference in New Delhi Thursday.
However, despite the anticipated decline in demand, crude oil prices may not fall as production is also expected to decline naturally, potentially leading to a supply crunch. In fact, by 2050, almost two-thirds of total demand will need to be met by new oil, which could have a profound impact on pricing, he said.
According to Das, a price range of $60-$70 per barrel is considered necessary to keep oil production going. This price range will provide the necessary incentive for oil producers to continue to invest in exploration and production, thereby ensuring a steady supply of oil to meet global demand.
In India, crude oil demand is expected to continue to grow, driven in part by increasing demand for chemicals, Das said. "As the country's economy continues to grow, its demand for oil is likely to rise, leading to a significant increase in import dependency, which is expected to reach 100%," he said. This will make India increasingly reliant on foreign oil supplies to meet domestic demand.
West Asia is expected to remain a crucial source of crude oil for India due to geographical proximity and existing refinery infrastructure, Das said. However, some diversification is anticipated, potentially from regions like Africa, Latin America, the US, and Canada. This diversification will help India to reduce its dependence on any single region and ensure a more stable supply of crude oil.
At 1457 IST, the most-active August contract of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 0.9% at $66.87 per barrel. End
US$1 = INR 85.32
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Pallavi Singhal and Afra Abubacker
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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