Informist Poll
Gold seen consolidating July, analysts recommend sell-on-jump
This story was originally published at 16:33 IST on 2 July 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 2, 2025
By J. Navya Sruthi and Ashutosh Pati
MUMBAI – After crossing the crucial INR 100,000 per 10 gram mark for the first time on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India in June, gold prices are likely to consolidate this month, analysts said. Market participants said they are awaiting the US' decision on its tariff policy, the deadline for which is Jul. 9.
On a yearly basis, gold prices on COMEX rose over 33% to an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April. Similarly, on the domestic exchange, gold prices hit a new record high of INR 101,078 per 10 gm on Jun. 16, significantly up over 29% on year.
"Historically, gold in dollar terms has not really been able to sustain gains beyond 30%," Anindya Banerjee, senior vice president for commodity and currency at Kotak Securities, said. "Right now, we don't have an immediate trigger for the gold (prices) to rise towards a new all-time high. But having said that, this consolidation is going to be very good because this will bring in a lot of long-term buyers in the market," he added.
The August gold futures on the MCX are seen at INR 94,000-INR 99,750 per 10 gm this month, according to the median of estimates of eight brokerages polled by Informist. On the COMEX, gold prices are seen at $3,240-$3,450 an ounce. At 1529 IST, the August gold contract was up 0.1% at INR 97,343 per 10 gm and the same-month contract on the COMEX was steady at $3,351 an ounce.
Gold prices rose to a record high on the MCX on Jun. 16 and an almost two-month high on COMEX due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, however, prices retreated quickly from these levels. "Despite the spike in political risk in June (due to the Israel-US war against Iran), gold prices remained tepid in an indication of geopolitical risk premia being mostly priced in since October 2023 from the start of the Israel-Palestine conflict," BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a report.
"Following Israel's attack on Iran on June 13, gold surged to a seven-week intraday high of $3,451/oz (ounce) on June 16 (still not breaking historical highs of $3,500/oz reached in April 2025), only to retreat following the announcement of a ceasefire," the report added.
Currently, safe-haven demand has eased and gold prices are expected to remain sideways, said Sriram Iyer, a senior analyst at Reliance Securities. Market awaits decision on reciprocal tariffs by the US due on Jul. 9, he said. "If everything is positive (negotiations for trade deal) then prices could fall to $3,150-$3,175 (per ounce)," he said, adding that if the discussions fail and trade-war escalates then gold prices are expected to rise to $3,400 per ounce on COMEX.
The easing geopolitical risk and uncertainty are key drivers behind recent declines in gold prices, said Riya Singh, research analyst–currency and commodities, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. "Current support is seen at $3,240 (per ounce), followed by $3,152–$3,123. Resistance is capped at $3,350," she said. Gold is expected to consolidate between $3,125–$3,500 and a confirmed break below $3,123 could open up room for a deeper correction toward $3,067, she added.
Motilal Oswal Wealth Management said gold is expected to remain range-bound at INR 94,000-INR 100,000 in July amid consolidation. "It is recommended to maintain neutral stance in the given range," it said. The brokerage said any breach on either side might initiate a directional move. Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Advisory, has recommended "sell-on-jump" for gold in July.
On the other hand, Surendra Mehta, national secretary at India Bullion and Jewellers Association, said gold prices will gain support in July and are seen rising to a fresh all-time high due to demand from global central banks. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, gold reserves with global central banks will increase over the next 12 months. The Gold Reserves Survey 2025 included responses from 73 central banks, of which 43?lieve their own gold reserves will also rise over the same period, and none of the respondents anticipate a decline in their gold reserves.
In the long run, analysts expect gold prices on COMEX to rise to $4,000 per ounce and INR 110,000 on MCX, due to interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and de-dollarisation. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the US Fed to leave key interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50% in its July meeting. However, data shows 72.9% of investors expect a 25-basis-point rate cut in the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Following is the summary of the poll by Informist on gold prices in July and details of estimates by respondents, in alphabetical order:
| Brokerage | MCX support (INR/10 gm) | MCX resistance (INR/10 gm) | COMEX support ($/oz) | COMEX resistance ($/oz) |
| Emkay | 94,400 | 98,350 | 3,240 | 3,350 |
| Kedia | 93,640 | 101,200 | 3,270 | 3,420 |
| Kotak | 96,000 | 100,000 | 3,250 | 3,450 |
| LKP Securities | 94,500 | 99,500 | 3,240 | 3,450 |
| Mofsl | 94,000 | 100,000 | -- | -- |
| Nirmal Bang | 92,300 | 101,500 | 3,270 | 3,480 |
| Prithvi Finmart | 94,000 | 98,000 | 3,200 | 3,400 |
| Reliance Sec | 93,500 | 99,000 | 3,150 | 3,450 |
| Median | 94,000 | 99,750 | 3,240 | 3,450 |
End
US$1 = INR 85.70
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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