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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 2, 2025

 

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--Kpler: India's crude oil imports in June at 4.7 mln bpd 
--Kpler: India's crude oil imports from Russia in June at 2.1 mln bpd 
--Kpler: India's crude oil imports from Russia in June highest in a year 
--Kpler: Iraq 2nd largest crude oil supplier to India in June at 827,000 bpd 
--Kpler:Saudi Arabia 3rd largest oil supplier to India in Jun at 580,000 bpd 
--Kpler: India crude oil imports from US at 303,000 bpd in June, in top five 
--Kpler: India crude oil imports from West Asia in June at nearly 2 mln bpd 
--Kpler: India crude oil imports from West Asia down 13% on month in June 
 

 

By Pallavi Singhal and Ashutosh Pati

 

NEW DELHI – India's crude oil imports from West Asia fell month-on-month in June due to risks posed by the Israel-Iran conflict for supply from the Gulf region. However, the imports were higher year-on-year, highlighting the region's importance in India's energy mix, Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst-refining and modelling at Kpler, said. India imported nearly 2 million barrels per day of crude oil from West Asia in June, down 13% on month.

 

India's crude oil imports in June were around 4.7 million barrels per day, with Russia accounting for a major chunk of the supply. India's crude oil imports from Russia surged to a year's high, underscoring the country's continued reliance on Moscow as a strategic partner in its energy security. According to Kpler data, imports from Russia were around 2.1 million barrels per day in June, marking the highest monthly volume in a year. The trend is expected to continue, with Russia likely to remain one of India's largest crude oil suppliers, Ritolia said.

 

This resurgence in Russian volumes reflects both commercial incentives and geopolitical realignments. Russian crude has remained highly competitive due to discounts, flexible payment mechanisms, and logistical adaptability through alternative shipping and insurance networks, Ritolia said. Despite mounting Western sanctions aimed at curbing Russia's energy revenues, Indian refiners have managed to maintain and even expand their procurement from Russia.

 

"Russian barrels have remained highly competitive due to discounts, payment mechanisms, and logistical flexibility," Ritolia noted. "Unless there are severe logistical or regulatory disruptions, this trend is likely to persist in the coming months."

 

West Asia continued to play a significant role in India's crude oil imports. Iraq was India's second-largest supplier in June, supplying around 827,000 barrels per day of crude, followed by Saudi Arabia at 580,000 barrels per day, and the United Arab Emirates at 490,000 barrels per day.

 

However, Russia's price flexibility continued to pressure West Asian suppliers, potentially limiting their ability to expand their market share in India. "The proximity and reliability of Gulf suppliers ensure they will remain core contributors to India's crude slate," Ritolia said.

 

Imports from US refineries remained steady, data showed. The US supplied about 303,000 barrels per day of crude oil in June, primarily consisting of light, sweet grades such as West Texas Intermediate and Cold Lake blend, Ritolia said. While US crude is desirable for crude blending and refinery optimisation, it remains relatively high-cost due to freight and logistics, which can take 30-45 days and is more prone to price fluctuations.

 

Unless trans-Atlantic arbitrage improves or instability in other supply regions triggers diversification, import volumes from the US are unlikely to grow substantially in the short term. "Geopolitical shifts, freight economics, and refinery economics will continue to shape India's sourcing decisions," Ritolia said.

 

Looking ahead, Russia is expected to remain India's largest crude supplier, accounting for 35-40% of imports, supported by price competitiveness and techno-economics, according to Ritolia. West Asia is likely to stabilise in the 35-40% range, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE continuing to play key roles.

 

As the monsoon season is now underway and local fuel demand typically eases, it's reasonable to expect overall import volumes to moderate during this period, he said.

 

INDIA'S CRUDE INVENTORY

Data indicates that India's inventory levels increased to 97.1 million barrels in May from 88.4 million barrels in March, Kpler said. Ritolia noted that the recent surge in inventory levels appears to be driven by tactical buying rather than a structural shift. According to Kpler inventory data, India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve volumes have remained broadly stable over the past year. However, overall inventories, including those held at refineries, have increased in recent months, reinforcing the view that refiners were bolstering commercial stocks, possibly with energy security in mind.

 

"The lack of further buildup in June suggests the move was tactical rather than structural--more about short-term risk management than a shift in underlying demand trends," Ritolia said. "India's crude inventory surge is driven by tactical buying, not a structural shift."   End

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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