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Informist, Monday, Jun. 30, 2025

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – The India Meteorological Department has forecast an above-normal rainfall for the country in July at over 106% of the long-period average. While this may bring relief to areas facing water scarcity, it may pose a risk of flooding and damage in regions prone to heavy rainfall.

According to the IMD, the increased rainfall is likely to lead to normal to below-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over most parts of India in July. Regions including those surrounding Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Uttarakhand are likely to witness heavier showers, Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, addressing a press conference. Central India is also likely to see heavy rainfall, with major rivers such as Mahanadi, Godavari, Krishna, and Kaveri likely to be affected.

Given the forecast for above-normal rainfall, the IMD has highlighted the need for continuous monitoring and timely release of water from reservoirs to reduce damage from excess rainfall. This is particularly crucial in eastern and central India, which have already seen excess rains.  

Monthly average maximum temperatures in July are expected to remain normal to below normal in many regions, except for northeast India and some areas of the northwest, east, and southern peninsular India, where they are likely to be above normal, the department said. Similarly, monthly average minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal over many parts of the country, but are likely to be above normal over northeast India, many parts of southern peninsular India, and some parts of northwest, east, and central India, it said.

Even though the country as a whole is expected to witness above-normal showers in July, the weather bureau sees most parts of northeast and east India, as well as many areas of extreme south peninsular India and some areas of northwest India receiving below-normal rainfall.

Meanwhile, the country witnessed a wettest June, recording 109% of the long-period average rainfall at 180 millimetres. This came after the southwest monsoon made an early start this year, setting in over Kerala on May 24, seven days ahead of its normal date of Jun. 1. This marked the earliest onset in 17 years, since 2009, when it arrived on May 23, the IMD said.

Following a rapid advance, the monsoon covered south India and northeast India by May 29 and, after a brief pause, resumed its progress on Jun. 16 and swiftly covered most parts of the country. By Jun. 26, it had engulfed almost the entire nation, except some areas in northwest Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, south Punjab, and south Haryana, including Delhi, it said. Ultimately, the southwest monsoon covered the entire country by Jun. 29, nine days ahead of its normal date of Jul. 8.

The rainfall pattern, however, varied across different regions, with central India experiencing 25% above-normal rainfall at 212.6 mm and northwest India receiving 42.2% above-normal rainfall at 111 mm. In contrast, east and northeast India received 17% below-normal rainfall at 272.9 mm, while the south peninsula experienced 2.7% below-normal rainfall at 156.7 mm. Despite the regional variations and uneven distribution, India's June rainfall was the ninth highest since 2001. However, the rainfall in east and northeast India was the eighth lowest since 2001.

Owing to heavy showers, temperatures across the country cooled down in June, with the average maximum temperature standing at 34.11 degrees Celsius, ranking as the 36th lowest since 1901. The average minimum temperature was 24.88 degrees Celsius, marking the 86th lowest on record. Overall, the mean temperature was 29.49 degrees Celsius, which was the 57th lowest since 1901, indicating a relatively cooler year compared to historical trends.

The current weather systems, according to the IMD, indicate a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation, showing that there is no probability of either the El Nino or the La Nina weather phenomenon, at least till the end of the monsoon. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are neutral currently, the department said. The department's model forecast suggests a possible transition from neutral to negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions in the coming months. However, the shift to a negative index may be brief, and it could transition to neutral conditions soon after, Mohapatra said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more showers in the country.   End

Reported by Pallavi Singhal and Shreya Shetty

Edited by Saji George Titus

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