Informist Poll
May IIP growth seen at 9-month low on unfavourable base
This story was originally published at 17:15 IST on 27 June 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – Growth in India's industrial production, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, likely moderated to a nine-month low of 2.3% in May, according to an Informist poll of 12 economists. IIP growth is expected to have eased last month because of a statistical effect of a high base.
Industrial output growth fell to 2.7% in April because of weaker performance in mining and electricity sectors. IIP grew 6.3% in May 2024. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release the IIP data for May at 1600 IST on Monday.
The base effect is such that even if the overall index remains unchanged from April, industrial output would contract 1.7% year-on-year in May. At the expected 2.3% growth, the overall index in May would have risen 4.1% from April. Factory output typically rises month-on-month in May, and has grown 3.8% on an average over the last 12 years. The average doesn't include the pandemic-hit year of 2020.
According to Union Bank of India, IIP growth also decelerated in May likely due to slowdown in mining and electricity. "The excess rainfall towards end of May due to early onset of monsoon impacted the performance of electricity and mining sectors," economists at Union Bank said in a note.
An expected moderation in IIP growth would follow a slower growth in output of eight core industries, which accounts for 40.3% of the total weight in IIP. Data released on Jun. 20 showed growth in output of India's eight core industries fell to a nine-month low of 0.7% in May.
Other high-frequency indicators also pointed to a slowdown in industrial activity. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 57.6 last month from 58.2 in April. The number of e-way bills generated rose 18.9% on year in May, slower than 23.4% growth in April. Vehicle production, however, picked up in May. It rose 5.2% on year in May, compared to a contraction of 1.7% on year in April.
"The industrial production growth in May 2025 is likely to have been adversely affected by the ongoing global trade and tariff uncertainty," Union Bank of India said. "Nearly 30-35% of weight in IIP is attributed to exports which is likely to come under pressure till some trade clarity is achieved."
The following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in May:
| ORGANISATION | IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
| India Ratings and Research | 1.0% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | 1.6% |
| HDFC Bank | 1.6% |
| YES Bank | 1.8% |
| ICRA | 2.0% |
| Nomura | 2.2% |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | 2.4% |
| Sunidhi Securities | 2.4% |
| Union Bank of India | 2.4% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 2.6% |
| Moody's Analytics | 2.7% |
| ICICI Bank | 3.1% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
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