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Informist, Thursday, Jun. 26, 2025

MUMBAI – The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral and will remain so at least till August, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report on Tuesday. The index may touch the negative threshold briefly between August and September, before returning to neutral values, the bureau said. 

A neutral Indian Ocean Dipole indicates typical weather patterns without any significant anomalies in India, favouring a healthy southwest monsoon. As of Sunday, the value of the index stood at (-)0.12 degrees Celsius. The index has steadily decreased during May and June, but remains within the neutral range, the bureau said. 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a positive index, and values below (−) 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a negative index.

The Indian Dipole Index usually enters a "spring predictability barrier" after winter, the bureau said. During this period, the model's forecasts are intrinsically more uncertain, or less skilful, in connection with the Northern Hemisphere spring. As such, forecasts made at this time of year habe been historically low in accuracy, it said.

The India Meteorological Department has said overall rainfall in the country during Jun-Sept is likely to be 106% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 4%. Since Jun. 1, the country has received 9% above-normal rainfall for the period at 146.6 millimetres, the Indian weather department said. 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation continues to be in a neutral state, the bureau said. Neither El Nino nor La Nina are likely until at least December, it said. This is consistent with forecasts of seven of the eight international models it reviewed.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation stood at (-) 0.06 degrees Celsius as of Sunday, suggesting neutral conditions. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-) 0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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