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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 25, 2025

By Simran Rede

MUMBAI – Indian benchmark indices may extend their gains Thursday buoyed by the ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the fall in crude oil prices. While some volatility is likely ahead of the weekly expiry of the derivatives contract of the Nifty 50, the market is expected to gain momentum post that. The Nifty 50 is likely to move in the range of 25175–25350 points on Thursday, analysts said.

While the ceasefire in West Asia has held steady, any violations will impact crude oil prices sharply, Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart, said. Crude oil prices are currently finding support at $66-$67 per barrel and may fall to $60 per barrel going ahead if the geopolitical tensions around the globe ease, he said. 

On the flip side, if the conflict in West Asia escalates and Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, crude prices might spike to $80 per barrel, he said. Additionally, if crude oil prices remain above $80 per barrel for a prolonged period, then there will be a lot of pain in the Indian equity market and the Nifty 50 may fall to 24000–23800 points, Meena said. However, the likelihood of tension rising is very low, according to analysts. At 1754 IST, the August contract of Brent Crude oil futures was at $67.44 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange, up 0.5%.

Wednesday, the Nifty 50 ended at 25244.75 points, up 200.40 points or 0.8%. The BSE Sensex closed at 82755.51 points, up 700.40 points or 0.9%. After a slow start, the indices surged during the session and held on to the gains, with the Nifty 50 ending above 25200 points for the first time since Oct. 3, 2024. The index is facing resistance at 25400 points and support at 25100 points, according to analysts.

Among specific sectors, Meena is bullish on the defence stocks and believes that even though investors booked profits Wednesday these stocks are expected to rise further from a long-term perspective. The Nifty India Defence closed 2% lower. The index has rallied over 25% since the start of the tensions between India and Pakistan in May, on hopes of defence companies getting more orders.

The banking stocks are seen moving higher, largely driven by strong balance sheets, the liquidity boost by the Reserve Bank of India, and the repo rate cut, analysts said. Although the cut is expected to lead to a fall in the margins of banks in the near term, this is seen as a positive factor for the growth of the fundamentals of banks going ahead. The June quarter earnings of banks are likely to be weak but will gain pace in the subsequent quarters, analysts said. The Nifty Bank closed 0.3% higher at 56621.15 points. Its resistance is pegged at 57000 points, and support is seen at 56400 points.  End

Edited by Saji George Titus

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