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Informist, Monday, Jun. 23, 2025

By Anjana Therese Antony

MUMBAI – The worsening geopolitical situation in West Asia with the continuing conflict between Israel and Iran and the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities is likely to keep the benchmark Nifty 50 below 25000 points in the near term, technical and derivatives analysts at two broking firms said. Premiums across out-of-the-money call contracts expiring Thursday declined, while those on put strikes closer to the spot Nifty 50 rose.

Analysts see a periodic correction in the market in the near term due to the growing uncertainty around the West Asia conflict as well as US tariffs, though the overall bias in the domestic stock market remains bullish due the country's long-term growth prospects, hopes of an above-normal monsoon, the government's capital expenditure push, and expectations of better earnings growth at least in the second half of the current financial year. 

The worsening crisis in West Asia led to a selloff in most global equity markets Monday, including India. The Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex both closed 0.6% lower at 24971.90 points and 81896.79 points, respectively. The near-term support for the 50-stock index is pegged at 24900-24850 points and resistance at 25050-25100 points. 

Premiums on call options at 24900-25300 strike prices declined 37-66% and those on put contracts at 24900-22100 strikes increased 8-12%, hinting at near-term cautiousness. The highest addition of open interest was at the 26500-point call and 24900-point put options. The maximum concentration of open interest was at the 26000-point call and 24000-point put contracts. Traders also added short bets in the futures contract of the Nifty 50 and open interest increased almost 5% to 11.35 million. The June contract closed 0.5% lower at 24993 points.

Investors are now waiting to see Iran's response to the US aggression Sunday. The world's sole superpower attacked three of the West Asian country's prime nuclear sites. The US attack led to a surge in global crude oil prices and deepened fears of a likely spike in inflation. At 1807 IST, the August Brent Crude contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was up 0.1% at $77.07 per barrel, softer than the $81 per barrel it had crossed earlier in the day, but way higher than the $58 per barrel hit in April. Iran is the third-largest crude oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies and India is the world's third-largest crude oil importer.

The US administration has also warned of a "heightened threat environment" in the country, citing potential cyber attacks or targeted violence, Reuters reported. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would consider all possible responses and there would be no return to diplomacy until it had retaliated, as per the report.

--Nifty 50 Jun closed at 24993.00, down 118.70 points; 21.10-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 Jul closed at 25099.70, down 101.50 points; 127.80-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 Aug closed at 25198.90, down 102.10 points; 227.00-point premium to the spot index

HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharat Electronics, Trent, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindalco Industries, BSE, InterGlobe Aviation, Dixon Technologies (India), Kotak Mahindra Bank, and JSW Steel were the most active underlying stocks Monday.  End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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