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Informist, Monday, Jun. 23, 2025

 

By Pallavi Singhal

 

NEW DELHI – The southwest monsoon has made notable progress over the past week, advancing across most of the country and significantly narrowing the rainfall deficit. However, analysts are concerned over the situation in east, northeast, and south India, where rainfall remains deficient as monsoon is stalled for over 15 days.

 

According to Aastha Gudwani, India chief economist at Barclays, the monsoon rains have expanded to cover the northwestern and eastern regions, helping to narrow the national rainfall deficit. Data from the India Meteorological Department shows a marked improvement, with all-India cumulative rainfall standing at 114.8 mm as of Monday, 2?ove the long-period average, and rebounding from a 31?ficit till Jun. 15.

 

However, region-wise variations persist, with large parts of the country, except for northwest and central India, continuing to experience deficient rainfall, Gudwani said. As of Monday, east and northeast India received 13?low normal showers at 205.0 millimetres and rains over southern India were 7?low normal at 112.0 millimetres. 

 

The southwest monsoon made an early onset over Kerala on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal date of Jun. 1. Following its initial advance across southern and northeastern India, the monsoon was stalled from May 29 to Jun. 15. However, it re-entered its active phase with northeast, south, and parts of central India witnessing heavy showers. By Jun. 16, the monsoon had advanced further, covering additional areas of east, west, and central India.

 

Conditions are currently favourable for monsoon to advance to the remaining parts of the North Arabian Sea, as well as regions including west Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi over the next two days. Private weather agency Skymet has forecast that southwest monsoon is likely to cover the entire country before its expected deadline of Jul. 8. 

 

Since Jun. 1, Telangana, Marathwada, and Chhattisgarh have received more than 40?ficient showers, while Vidarbha has received 58?low normal rains so far. Other regions such as Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Rayalaseema, Lakshadweep, and coastal Andhra Pradesh remain in deficit of over 30%. South interior Karnataka, Kerala, along with parts of northwest India, have received 10?ficient rains so far. 

 

The progress of monsoon is crucial for kharif sowing. According to Gudwani, monsoon has helped crop sowing in the current kharif season. As of Jun. 13, the total area sown in the kharif season stood at 8.9 million hectares, 1.8% higher than the corresponding period last year. While kharif sowing typically picks up pace only from July, the weekly progress will be closely monitored for its likely impact on production, she said. 

 

Reservoir storage levels have also improved, with storage in key reservoirs standing at 30% of total capacity as of Jun. 12. This is much higher than the 22% levels seen in the corresponding period last year. The water level in 161 key reservoirs, as of Jun. 12, was at a six-year high of 55.519 billion cubic metres.

 

While the situation has improved, it will need to be monitored closely, Gudwani said, adding that further developments in monsoon activity will be crucial in determining its impact on agriculture and the overall economy.  End

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

 

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