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Informist, Friday, Jun. 20, 2025

NEW DELHI – The conflict between Israel and Iran is affecting the shares of oil and gas companies on Dalal Street, analysts said. A Mumbai-based technical analyst anticipates consolidation in the Nifty Oil & Gas sectoral index after it posted a modest weekly gain of 0.2%. In contrast, the benchmark Nifty 50 closed 1.6% higher this week. Most of the sector's weekly gains came Friday, when the Nifty Oil & Gas climbed 0.9% to close at 11,462.10 points.

The rise in crude oil prices on the continuing conflict in West Asia is expected to hit the earnings of Indian oil companies. "Elevated crude prices to assist profitability of Indian upstream players but marketing margins of downstream companies will be impacted," said ratings agency ICRA in a report Thursday.

The agency expects liquefied petroleum gas under-recoveries for Indian downstream companies to expand by INR 160 billion compared to the level seen in the financial year 2024-25 (Apr–Mar). Marketing margins for petrol and diesel are expected to moderate to INR 6–8 per litre, ICRA said.

Jatin Gedia, a technical analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, forecasts Brent crude oil to rise to $81 per barrel going forward. If the commodity breaches this level, it could go up to $90 a barrel as well, he said. 

Oil prices shot up to almost $80 per barrel in the aftermath of Israel's surprise attack on Iran but retreated to $75 level this week. Analysts at Emkay Research expect oil prices to hover around $70 per barrel for the year, a level that it sees as a safe spot for Indian oil marketing companies and upstream players. "...valuation and risk-reward-wise, though, OMCs appear more attractive," the firm said in a report. 

Every $5 per barrel rise in oil prices is projected to boost Oil and Natural Gas Corp.'s earnings per share by 12% and its upstream peer Oil India's earnings per share by 9%. The firm expects ONGC to have more upside than Oil India, but said its rerating hinges on production growth updates.

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Following are the resistance and support levels for key stocks in the oil and gas sector for next week as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

End

US$1 = INR 86.58

Reported by Anand JC

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

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