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Informist, Friday, Jun. 20, 2025

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

Most parts of west, central, east, and northeast India received heavy to very heavy rainfall during the week. A few parts of Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, and northeast were under a red alert during some days of the week due to extremely heavy showers. The India Meteorological Department had also issued an orange alert for most parts of central and east India due to very heavy showers during the week.  

Two low pressure areas developed during the week – one over the Gujarat region and the other over southwest Bangladesh and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal. These two weather systems along with other cyclonic circulations caused heavy rains across the country. 

These heavy showers have lifted the total average rainfall received since Jun. 1. As of Jun. 13, when the monsoon current was not active, the country had received 33.7 millimetres of rainfall, which was 33% below the normal, the weather bureau's data showed. However, as of Friday, the actual rainfall received was just 5% below normal at 82.6 millimetres. From Jun. 12 to Wednesday, the country received 11% above-normal showers at 45.1 millimetres.   

The southwest monsoon, which had stalled from May 29 to Jun. 15, re-entered its active phase with heavy showers over northeast, south, and parts of central India earlier in the week. On Jun. 16, the southwest monsoon advanced into more parts of east, west, and central India. As of Friday it has covered entire Gujarat, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha. It has also advanced into Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar. 

The weather bureau said conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance into Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir during next two days. The monsoon is also seen advancing in Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi next week, it said. As of Friday, the northern limit of the monsoon is passing through Jaipur in Rajasthan, Agra in Uttar Pradesh, Rampur in Uttar Pradesh, Dehradun in Uttarakhand, Shimla in Himachal Pradesh, and Manali in Himachal Pradesh. 

Rainfall activity over northwest India and Madhya Pradesh is likely to increase from Sunday, the weather bureau said. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to continue over northeast India for the next seven days. 

Following is the weekly all-India rainfall since the beginning of the southwest monsoon season:

Following table gives sub-division-wise rainfall during Jun 1-20 in the country (in millimetres): 

MONSOON PROGRESS

This year, the southwest monsoon hit the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal date of Jun. 1, and by May 29 the monsoon current covered southern and northeast India entirely, and parts of east and central India. However, after May 29, the monsoon was in a weak phase and resumed advancing only on Jun. 16. So far, the monsoon current has covered the entire east and central India and is likely to cover parts of northwest India next week. Normally, beginning Jun. 1, the southwest monsoon advances northwards and covers the entire country around Jul. 8. The withdrawal of the monsoon starts around Sept. 17, and it withdraws from the entire country around Oct. 15. 

ONSET CRITERIA

At present, the department uses criteria that was adopted in 2016 for declaring the onset of the monsoon over Kerala, which is based on the daily rainfall at 14 stations in Kerala and the neighbouring area, along with wind-field and outgoing long-wave radiation over the southeast Arabian Sea.

If, after May 10, 60% of the 14 designated stations--Minicoy and Amini in Lakshadweep, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, and Kannur in Kerala, and Kudulu and Mangalore in Karnataka--report rainfall of 2.5 millimetres or more for two consecutive days, the onset over Kerala will be declared on the second day, provided the wind-field and outgoing long-wave radiation conditions are met.

The outgoing long-wave radiation measures the amount of terrestrial radiation released into space and, by extension, the amount of cloud cover and water vapour that intercepts that radiation in the atmosphere.

The criteria emphasise the sharp increase in rainfall over Kerala along with the setting up of large-scale monsoon flow and extension of westerlies up to 600 hectopascal. 

However, the department declares the monsoon onset or progress dates for other regions operationally in a subjective manner, considering the sharp increase in rainfall and its characteristic sustenance for a few days and associated changes in the atmospheric circulation features.

LONG-RANGE FORECAST

The India Meteorological Department has projected the southwest monsoon to be above normal at over 106% of the long-period average of 870 millimetres, which is based on historical data from 1971 to 2020. The forecast assumes a modelling error of plus or minus 4%, according to the second-stage long-range forecast for the Jun-Sept southwest monsoon season. The department had earlier predicted rainfall for Jun-Sept at 105% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 5%.

The agency said that on average, it expects above-normal rainfall over most parts of the country this year except northeast India, where rainfall is expected to be lower than normal. Central and south peninsular India are expected to receive above-normal rainfall at 106% of the long-period average, while rainfall over the northwestern parts of the country is likely to be normal at 92-108% of the long-period average.

According to the bureau's forecasts for the season, there is 59% chance of above-normal monsoon rains and 31% chance of normal showers. The chances of below-normal precipitation stand at 8% and those of deficient showers are just 2%. 

The weather bureau predicts rainfall in June to be above normal at 108% of the long-period average. Normal to above-normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country in June. However, some southern parts of peninsular India and parts of northwest and northeast India are expected to record below-normal rainfall.

The latest climate models forecast that weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to persist during the southwest monsoon period. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. Usually, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive dipole results in better rainfall.

The weak negative conditions will not affect the country's southwest monsoon as much as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. The weather department sees neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region during Jun-Sept. 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino, which means Little Boy in Spanish, is a climate pattern marked by an unusual warming of the surface waters in the Pacific Ocean leading to drier, hotter weather in India. La Nina, which means Little Girl in Spanish, is the opposite of El Nino. It is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is associated with the colder sea surface temperatures. La Nina is usually associated with good rains in India. 

The department's long-range forecasts are as follows:

Private forecaster Skymet has predicted a 'normal' southwest monsoon at 103% of the long-period average with an error margin of plus or minus 5%. The agency had predicted a weak start to the monsoon this year but expects the rainfall to increase from July. It does not see any chance of the occurrence of El Nino.

PRE-MONSOON RAINFALL

While the monsoon arrived on May 24, the weather department said rainfall during May would not be factored into the southwest monsoon. The country received above-normal rainfall during the pre-monsoon period in Mar-May. India received 185.8 millimetres of rainfall during Mar-May, 42% above the normal for the period. Last year, it received 108.7 millimetres rainfall during Mar-May, 8.1% below the normal for the period.

RECAP 2024
The country received 934.8 millimetres of rainfall in Jun-Sept last year, which was 108% of the long-period average. The monsoon had hit the Kerala coast on May 30, two days ahead of the scheduled date, and covered the entire country by Jul. 2, six days ahead of the normal date of Jul. 8. The weather bureau's forecast for the monsoon onset over Kerala last year was May 31 and predicted rainfall during Jun-Sept 920.7 millimetres, or 96% of the long-period average.     

Overall, monsoon rainfall was above normal for the season and the spatial distribution was uniform. The rainfall in June was below-normal at 89% of the long-period average. However, the country received above-normal showers during the rest of the southwest monsoon period. Rainfall was 109% of the long-period average in July, 115% in August, and 112% in September.

Rainfall during the season was 107% of the long-period average in northwest India, 119% in central India, 86% in east and northeast India, and 114% in the southern peninsula. Of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, two subdivisions received large excess, 10 received excess, and 21 recorded normal rainfall. Three subdivisions received deficient rainfall during Jun-Sept last year – Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh.

RESERVOIR LEVELS

The water level in 161 key reservoirs was 55.519 billion cubic metres as of Jun. 12, which is at a six-year high, according to data collated by Informist. However, the water level had fallen from the previous week's level of 56.802 billion cubic metres as monsoon showers had stalled during the first half of June. 

The current level in these reservoirs is 30.43% of the total live storage; it is also 40% higher on year and 31% above the 10-year average for this period. In the corresponding period last year, the live storage available in these reservoirs was 39.755 billion cubic metres and normal storage was 42.434 billion cubic metres.

In the northern region, reservoirs held 5.449 billion cubic metres of water, over 27% of their total live storage capacity. The water level in reservoirs in the eastern region stood at 5.392 billion cubic metres, or nearly 25% of the total live storage capacity. Reservoirs in the western region held 11.223 billion cubic metres or 30% of the total live storage capacity.

In the central region, which includes Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Chhattisgarh, the water level in reservoirs was 14.693 billion cubic metres, and over 30% of the total live storage capacity. The water level in the southern region was 18.762 billion cubic metres, or 34.15% of the total live storage capacity of the 45 reservoirs in the region.

The current live storage capacity of these 161 reservoirs is 182.444 billion cubic metres. Water in these reservoirs, which is used for irrigation and generating electricity, is replenished during the monsoon season.

SOWING

Farmers across the country have sown kharif crops over 8.9 million hectares as of Jun. 13, up nearly 2% from a year ago, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare showed. The sowing of kharif crops has begun well due to the early onset on the southwest monsoon. The forecast of above-normal rainfall this season has boosted the acreage of key crops such as paddy, sugarcane, and oilseeds. 

The area under paddy, one of the main kharif crops, was up over 13% on year at 453,000 hectares. The area under pulses rose to 307,000 hectares, up from 260,000 hectares at the same time last year. Under pulses, urad and moong acreage rose from last year, but the area under tur, the largest kharif pulses crop, was down nearly 27% on year at 30,000 hectares. 

Soybean acreage rose a whopping 168% on year to 107,000 hectares. The area under cotton was at 1.32 million hectares, slightly lower than 1.33 million hectares a year ago. The acreage of maize was down nearly 16% on year at 360,000 hectares as of Jun. 13.   

TERMS

LARGE EXCESS: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is 60% or more 

EXCESS: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is 20-59% 

NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is -19% to +19%

DEFICIENT: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is (-)59-20%

LARGE DEFICIENT: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is (-)99-60%

NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall is within +/-10% of the long period average

BELOW NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall is <10% of the long period average

ABOVE NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall is within >10% of the long period average

EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL: Rainfall realised in a day is a value near about the highest recorded rainfall at or near the station for the month or season. However, this term will be used only when the actual rainfall amount exceeds 120 mm. 

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is >/= 244.5 mm

VERY HEAVY RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is 124.5-244.4 mm

HEAVY RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is 64.5-124.4 mm

MODERATE RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is 7.6-35.5 mm 

RED ALERT: Very heavy rainfall of over 204.4 mm in 24 hours

ORANGE ALERT: Heavy rainfall of 115.6-204.4 mm in 24 hours 

YELLOW ALERT: Warning to be aware of worsening weather conditions that could disrupt daily life

End

Internet links:
India Meteorological Department - www.imd.gov.in
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting - www.ncmrwf.gov.in
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology - www.tropmet.res.in.  

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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